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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >EXAMINING MODELING APPROACHES FOR THE RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS IN WILDFIRE-AFFECTED WATERSHEDS: USING SAN DIMAS EXPERIMENTAL FOREST
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EXAMINING MODELING APPROACHES FOR THE RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS IN WILDFIRE-AFFECTED WATERSHEDS: USING SAN DIMAS EXPERIMENTAL FOREST

机译：受威尔福德影响的流域降雨降雨径流过程的审查建模方法：使用圣迪马斯实验森林

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摘要

Wildfire can significantly change watershed hydrological processes resulting in increased risks for flooding, erosion, and debris flow. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive capability of hydrological models in estimating post-fire runoff using data from the San Dimas Experimental Forest (SDEF), San Dimas, California. Four methods were chosen representing different types of post-fire runoff prediction methods, including a Rule of Thumb, Modified Rational Method (MODRAT), HEC-HMS Curve Number, and KINematic Runoff and EROSion Model 2 (KINEROS2). Results showed that simple, empirical peak flow models performed acceptably if calibrated correctly. However, these models do not reflect hydrological mechanisms and may not be applicable for predictions outside the area where they were calibrated. For pre-fire conditions, the Curve Number approach implemented in HEC-HMS provided more accurate results than KINEROS2, whereas for post-fire conditions, the opposite was observed. Such a trend may imply fundamental changes from pre- to post-fire hydrology. Analysis suggests that the runoff generation mechanism in the watershed may have temporarily changed due to fire effects from saturation-excess runoff or subsurface storm dominated complex mechanisms to an infiltration-excess dominated mechanism. Infiltration modeling using the Hydrus-ID model supports this inference. Results of this study indicate that physically-based approaches may better reflect this trend and have the potential to provide consistent and satisfactory prediction.
机译：野火会显着改变流域的水文过程，从而导致洪水，侵蚀和泥石流的风险增加。这项研究的目的是使用加利福尼亚州圣迪马斯的圣迪马斯实验森林（SDEF）的数据评估水文模型在估算火灾后径流方面的预测能力。选择了四种代表不同类型火后径流预测方法的方法，包括经验法则，修正有理方法（MODRAT），HEC-HMS曲线数，运动径流和侵蚀模型2（KINEROS2）。结果表明，如果校准正确，简单的经验峰值流量模型可以令人满意地执行。但是，这些模型不能反映水文机制，因此可能不适用于校准区域以外的预测。对于火灾前的情况，HEC-HMS中实施的“曲线数”方法比KINEROS2提供的结果更准确，而对于火灾后的情况，则观察到相反的结果。这种趋势可能意味着从火灾前到火灾后的水文发生根本变化。分析表明，流域的径流生成机制可能是由于火灾影响而暂时发生变化的，其原因是从饱和度过多的径流或地下暴雨为主的复杂机制到渗水过多的为主机制。使用Hydrus-ID模型的渗透建模支持此推断。这项研究的结果表明，基于物理的方法可能会更好地反映这一趋势，并有可能提供一致且令人满意的预测。

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