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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >WATER STRESS PROJECTIONS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN AND MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2060: ANTHROPOGENIC AND ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES
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WATER STRESS PROJECTIONS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN AND MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2060: ANTHROPOGENIC AND ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES

机译：2060年美国东北部和中西部的水压力预测：人为和生态后果

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摘要

Future climate and land-use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast and Midwest and (2) native fish species richness (i.e., number of species) for the Upper Mississippi water resource region (UMWRR). Six alternative scenarios of climate change, land-use change, and human population growth indicated future water supplies will, on average across the region, be adequate to meet anthropogenic demands. Nevertheless, the number of individual watersheds experiencing severe stress (demand > supplies) was projected to increase for most scenarios, and some watersheds were projected to experience severe stress under multiple scenarios. Similarly, we projected declines in fish species richness for UMWRR watersheds and found the number of watersheds with projected declines and the average magnitude of declines varied across scenarios. All watersheds in the UMWRR were projected to experience declines in richness for at least two future scenarios. Many watersheds projected to experience declines in fish species richness were not projected to experience severe anthropogenic water stress, emphasizing the need for multidimensional impact assessments of changing water resources.
机译：未来的气候和土地利用变化以及不断增长的人口数量可能会降低东北和中西部（美国）相对于人为和生态需求的水资源丰富程度。我们使用了WaSSI（一种水核算模型）的输出来评估2010年至2060年之间（1）东北和中西部流域的人为水资源压力和（2）本地鱼类物种丰富度（即物种数量）的潜在变化。密西西比河上游水资源区（UMWRR）。气候变化，土地利用变化和人口增长的六种替代方案表明，整个地区平均未来的供水将足以满足人为需求。但是，在大多数情况下，预计流域内承受严重压力（需求>供应）的流域数量将增加，并且在一些情况下，预计某些流域将面临严重的压力。同样，我们对UMWRR流域的鱼类物种丰富度进行了预测，发现流域的数量与预计的下降量以及平均下降幅度在各种情况下都不同。预计在至少两个未来情况下，UMWRR中的所有流域都将经历丰富度的下降。预计许多流域的鱼类物种丰富度将下降，而预计不会出现严重的人为水资源压力，从而强调需要对水资源变化进行多维影响评估。

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