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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE ARKANSAS RED RIVER BASIN
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EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE ARKANSAS RED RIVER BASIN

机译：阿肯色州红河盆地上操作性国家气象服务网状闪烁洪灾指导评估

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摘要

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service (NWS) flash flood warnings are issued by Weather Forecast Offices and are underpinned by information from the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) system operated by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs). This study focuses on the quantitative evaluation and limitations of the FFG system using reported flash flood cases in 2010 and 2011. The flash flood reports were obtained from the NWS Storm Event database for the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC (ABRFC). The current FFG system at the ABRFC provides gridded flash flood guidance (GFFG) system using the NWS Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model to translate the upper zone soil moisture to estimates of Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. Comparisons of the GFFG and real-time Multisensor Precipitation Estimator-derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimate for the same duration and location were used to analyze the success of the system. Typically, the six-hour duration was characterized by higher probability of detection values than the three-hour duration, which highlights the difficulty of hydrologic process estimation for shorter time scales. The current system does not take into account physical characteristics such as land use, including irrigated agricultural farm and urban areas, hence, overly dry soil moisture estimates over these areas can lower the success rate of the GFFG product.
机译：国家海洋和大气管理局的国家气象局（NWS）暴雨洪水警告由天气预报办公室发布，并由河流预报中心（RFC）运营的暴雨洪水指导（FFG）系统提供的信息作为支撑。本研究的重点是使用2010年和2011年报告的山洪暴发案例对FFG系统进行定量评估和局限性。山洪暴发报告是从阿肯色州-红盆地RFC（ABRFC）的NWS风暴事件数据库获得的。 ABRFC的当前FFG系统使用NWS水文学实验室研究的分布式水文模型提供网格化的洪水指导（GFFG）系统，将上层土壤水分转化为土壤保护服务曲线编号的估计值。使用GFFG和实时多传感器降水估算器得出的相同持续时间和位置的定量降水估算值进行比较，以分析系统的成功之处。通常，六小时的持续时间的特征在于检测值的概率高于三小时的持续时间，这突出了较短时间尺度下水文过程估计的困难。当前的系统未考虑土地使用等物理特性，包括灌溉农业农场和城市地区，因此，这些地区过度干燥的土壤水分估计会降低GFFG产品的成功率。

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