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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >EVALUATION OF THE TEMPORAL TRANSFERABILITY OF A MODEL DESCRIBING DISSOLVED SOLIDS IN STREAMS OF THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
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EVALUATION OF THE TEMPORAL TRANSFERABILITY OF A MODEL DESCRIBING DISSOLVED SOLIDS IN STREAMS OF THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN

机译：上科罗拉多河盆地流段中描述溶质模型的时间传递性评估

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摘要

The application of a nonlinear least-squares regression model describing the sources and transport of dissolved solids in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin, and that was calibrated using data from water year 1991, was evaluated for use in predicting annual dissolved-solids loads for the years 1974 through 1998. Simulations for each water year were run using annual climate data. To evaluate how well the model captures the observed annual variability across the basin, differences in predicted annual dissolved-solids loads for each simulated year and 1991 were compared with differences in monitored annual loads. The temporal trend of the differences between predicted annual loads for the simulated years and the load for 1991 generally followed the trend of the monitored loads. The model appears to underpredict the largest annual loads and overpredict some of the smaller annual loads. An underprediction bias for wetter years was evident in the residuals as was an overprediction bias, to a lesser degree, for drier years. A regression analysis on the residuals suggests that the underprediction bias is associated with precipitation differences from 1991 and with previously denned downward trends in dissolved-solids concentrations in the basin. In general, given the representative climatic conditions, the model adequately performs throughout the period examined. However, the model is most transferable to years with climatic conditions similar to 1991.
机译：评估了非线性最小二乘回归模型的应用，该模型描述了上科罗拉多河盆地河流中溶解固体的来源和运移，并使用1991年水年数据进行了校准，以评估该州每年的溶解固体负荷。 1974年至1998年。使用每年的气候数据对每个水年进行模拟。为了评估该模型如何很好地捕获整个盆地观测到的年度变化，将每个模拟年和1991年的预测年度固溶负荷差异与监测的年度负荷差异进行了比较。模拟年份的预测年负荷与1991年负荷之间差异的时间趋势总体上遵循监视负荷的趋势。该模型似乎低估了最大的年度负荷，而高估了一些较小的年度负荷。残差中很明显的是对较湿年份的低估偏差，而对于较干燥的年份，过低偏差的程度较小。对残差的回归分析表明，低估偏差与1991年以来的降水差异以及盆地中溶解固体浓度的先前确定的下降趋势有关。通常，给定典型的气候条件，该模型在整个检查期间都可以充分发挥作用。但是，该模型最能转移到气候条件与1991年相似的年份。

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