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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >ASSESSING EFFECTIVENESS OF NATIONAL FLOOD POLICY THROUGH SPATIOTEMPORAL MONITORING OF SOCIOECONOMIC EXPOSURE
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ASSESSING EFFECTIVENESS OF NATIONAL FLOOD POLICY THROUGH SPATIOTEMPORAL MONITORING OF SOCIOECONOMIC EXPOSURE

机译：通过社会经济暴露的时空监测评估国家洪水政策的有效性

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After a century of evolving flood policies, there has been a steady increase in flood losses, which has partly been driven by development in flood prone areas. National flood policy was revised in 1994 to focus on limiting and reducing the amount of development inside the 100-year floodplain, with the goal of decreasing flood losses, which can be measured and quantified in terms of population and property value inside the 100-year floodplain. Monitoring changes in these measurable indicators can inform where and how effective national floodplain management strategies have been. National flood policies are restricted to the spatial extent of the 100-year floodplain, thus there are no development regulations to protect against flooding adjacent to this boundary. No consistent monitoring has been undertaken to examine the effect of flood policy on development immediately outside the 100-year floodplain. We developed a standardized methodology, which leveraged national data to quantify changes in population and building tax value (exposure). We applied this approach to counties in North Carolina to assess (1) temporal changes, before and after the 1994 policy and (2) spatial changes, inside and adjacent to the 100-year floodplain. Temporal results indicate the Piedmont and Mountain Region had limited success at reducing exposure within the 100-year floodplain, while the Coastal Plain successfully reduced exposure. Spatially, there was a significant increase in exposure immediately outside the 100-year floodplain throughout North Carolina. The lack of consistent monitoring has resulted in the continuation of this unintended consequence, which could be a significant driver of increased flood losses as any flood even slightly higher than the 100-year floodplain will have a disproportionately large impact since development is outside the legal boundary of national flood policy.
机译：在经历了一个世纪不断演变的洪水政策之后，洪水损失一直在稳步增加，这在一定程度上是由于洪水易发地区的发展所致。 1994年修订了国家洪水政策，着眼于限制和减少100年洪泛区内部的开发量，目标是减少洪灾损失，这可以根据100年内部的人口和财产价值进行衡量和量化洪泛区。监测这些可衡量指标的变化可以告知国家洪泛区管理策略在何处以及如何有效。国家洪水政策仅限于100年洪泛区的空间范围，因此，没有开发规程来防止该边界附近的洪水。没有进行持续的监测以检查洪水政策对100年洪泛区以外地区发展的影响。我们开发了一种标准化的方法，该方法利用国家数据来量化人口变化和建筑税值（暴露）。我们将此方法应用于北卡罗莱纳州的县，以评估（1）1994年政策前后的时间变化和（2）100年洪泛区内部和附近的空间变化。时间结果表明，皮埃蒙特和山区在减少100年洪泛区内的暴露方面取得的成功有限，而沿海平原成功地减少了暴露。在空间上，整个北卡罗来纳州100年洪泛区之外的地区暴露量显着增加。缺乏一致的监测导致了这种意想不到的后果的延续，这可能是洪水损失增加的重要驱动力，因为任何洪水甚至比100年洪泛区略高的洪水都会产生不成比例的巨大影响，因为发展超出了法律界限国家洪水政策。

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