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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY
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POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY

机译：气候变化对加州水文学的潜在影响

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Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5℃ to 5.0℃ and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow-producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.
机译：先前基于气候变化情景的报告表明，加利福尼亚州冬季将增加，夏季水流将减少。由于未来气候预测的不确定性，萨克拉曼多土壤水分核算模型和安德森雪模型应用了一系列潜在的气候未来温度变化和降水比率，以确定水文敏感性。相对于加利福尼亚州的GCM预测，该分析使用了两种通用循环模型（GCM）：一种是湿热的（HadCM2运行1），另一种是冷干的（PCM运行B06.06）。政府间气候变化专门委员会第三次评估报告。一组指定的增量温度变化（从1.5℃到5.0℃）和降水比（从0.70到1.30）也被用作雪和土壤湿度会计模型的输入，从而提供了其他方案（例如，暖/干，凉/湿）。对一组加利福尼亚河流域进行了水文计算，这些河流域从沿海山脉和内华达山脉北部地区一直延伸到内华达山脉南部地区。在随附的论文中将这些应用于水分配分析。结果表明，在所有降雪案例中，较大流量的流量将在今年早些时候发生。数量和时间取决于每个流域的特征，尤其是海拔。温度升高导致较高的冻结线，因此积雪减少，低于冻结高度的融化增加。水文响应因每种情况而异，并且得出的解决方案集为水流，融雪，雪水当量和年度高流量量变化的可能变化范围提供了界限。对于所有融雪驱动的径流盆地来说，一个重要的结果是，到本世纪末，冬末的积雪减少了50％。

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