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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >DROUGHT INDICATORS AND TRIGGERS: A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO EVALUATION
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DROUGHT INDICATORS AND TRIGGERS: A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO EVALUATION

机译：干旱的指标和触发因素：评估的一种随机方法

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摘要

Drought management depends on indicators to detect drought conditions, and triggers to activate drought responses. But determining those indicators and triggers presents challenges. Indicators often lack spatial and temporal transferability, comparability among scales, and relevance to critical drought impacts. Triggers often lack statistical integrity, consistency among drought categories, and correspondence with desired management goals. This article presents an approach for developing and evaluating drought indicators and triggers, using a probabilistic framework that offers comparability, consistency, and applicability. From that, a multistate Markov model investigates the stochastic behavior of indicators and triggers, including transitioning, duration, and frequency within drought categories. This model is applied to the analysis of drought in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States, using indicators of the Standardized Precipitation Index (for 3, 6, 9, and 12 months), the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index. The analysis revealed differences among the performance of indicators and their trigger thresholds, which can influence drought responses. Results contribute to improved understanding of drought phenomena, statistical methods for indicators and triggers, and insights for drought management.
机译：干旱管理取决于检测干旱状况的指标，并触发激活干旱应对措施。但是确定这些指标和触发因素会带来挑战。指标通常缺乏时空的可传递性，规模之间的可比性以及与严重干旱影响的相关性。触发因素通常缺乏统计完整性，干旱类别之间的一致性以及与所需管理目标的对应性。本文介绍了一种使用概率框架来开发和评估干旱指标和触发器的方法，该框架提供了可比性，一致性和适用性。据此，多状态马尔可夫模型研究了指标和触发因素的随机行为，包括干旱类别内的过渡，持续时间和频率。该模型适用于美国东南部Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint流域的干旱，使用标准降水指数（3、6、9和12个月），Palmer干旱严重性指数，和帕尔默水文干旱指数。分析揭示了指标的性能及其触发阈值之间的差异，这可能会影响干旱响应。结果有助于增进对干旱现象的了解，指标和触发因素的统计方法以及对干旱管理的见识。

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