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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF FLOODING DAMAGE ON A USA/QUEBEC RIVER BASIN
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HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF FLOODING DAMAGE ON A USA/QUEBEC RIVER BASIN

机译：美国/魁北克河流域洪灾的历史演变

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摘要

There is a general belief in the public eye that extreme events such as floods are becoming more and more common. This paper explores this hypothesis by examining the historical evolution of annual expected flooding damage on the Chateauguay River Basin, located at the border between the United States and the province of Quebec, Canada. A database of basin land use was constructed for the years 1930 and 1995 to assess anthropogenic changes and their impact on the basin's hydrology. The progressive modification of the likelihood of a flooding event over the same period was then investigated using homogeneity and statistical tests on available hydrometric data. The evolution of the annual expected flooding damage was then evaluated using a coupled hydrologic/hydraulic simulator linked to a damage analysis model. The simulator and model were used to estimate flooding damage over a wide range of flooding return periods, for conditions prevailing in 1963 and 1995. Results of the analysis reveal the absence of any increasing or decreasing trend in the historical occurrence of flooding events. However, a general increase in the annual expected flooding damage was observed for all studied river sections. This increase is linked to an historical increase in damages for a given flooding event, and is the result of unbridled construction and development within the flood zone. To assess for future trends, this study also examined the potential impacts linked to the anticipated global warming. Results indicate that a significant increase in seasonal flooding events and annual expected flooding damage is possible over the next century. In fact, what is now considered a 100-year flooding event for the summer/fall season could become a ten-year event by the end of this century. This shows that potential future impacts linked to climate change should be considered now by engineers, land planners, and decision makers. This is especially critical if a design return period is part of the decision making process.
机译：公众普遍认为，洪水等极端事件正变得越来越普遍。本文通过考察位于美国与加拿大魁北克省之间边界的Chateauguay流域的年度预期洪水破坏的历史演变来探索这一假设。建立了1930年和1995年流域土地利用数据库，以评估人为变化及其对流域水文学的影响。然后，使用均一性和对可用水文数据进行统计检验，研究同一时期洪水事件可能性的逐步变化。然后，使用与损害分析模型链接的水文/水力模拟耦合器评估年度预期洪水损害的演变。在1963年和1995年的普遍情况下，使用仿真器和模型来估算在大范围的洪水恢复期内的洪水损害。分析结果表明，历史上发生的洪水事件没有任何增加或减少的趋势。但是，在所有研究的河段中，观察到的年度预期洪灾损失普遍增加。这种增加与给定洪水事件的历史损失增加有关，并且是洪水区域内不受限制的建设和发展的结果。为了评估未来趋势，本研究还研究了与预期的全球变暖相关的潜在影响。结果表明，在下个世纪，季节性洪水事件和每年预期的洪水破坏可能会大大增加。实际上，现在被认为是夏季/秋季的100年洪水事件到本世纪末可能会变成10年事件。这表明工程师，土地规划人员和决策者现在应考虑与气候变化有关的未来潜在影响。如果设计返回期是决策过程的一部分，则这尤其重要。

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