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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin
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Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin

机译：评估关于科罗拉多河流域干旱和低流量的回顾性国家水模型流量

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摘要

Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts.
机译：科罗拉多河流域（CRB）的流量监测对于确保满足各种需求至关重要，特别是在干旱或低流量时期。但是，现有的流量监测网络只能提供过去和当前流量的有限记录。具有更完整的空间和时间覆盖范围（包括国家水模型[NWM]）的模拟流量产品主要关注洪水，而不是持续干旱或低流量条件。这项研究的目的是（1）评估NWM流量估计值的历史表现（尤其是针对干旱和季节性低流量），以及（2）确定与模型输入有关的特征以及对未来应用的适用性。比较了从NWM到CRB在22年中从美国地质调查局流量监测网络观察到的流量，发现了低估低流量频率，低流量位置和低流量年数的趋势。我们发现对于上部CRB以及在具有更高降水，下雪百分比，基流指数和高程的地点，模型性能更为准确。低流量和模型性能的低估对未来的应用具有重要意义：对历史低流量和干旱的评估不准确，以及在特定流域/河流条件之外的可靠性较低。这突出显示了将来模型开发工作应重点关注的特征。

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