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Available Water Supplies in Beijing, China, Under Single- and Multi-Year Drought

机译：一年和多年干旱下中国北京的可用供水

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摘要

Since its implementation in 2015, the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MR-SNWDP) has transferred an average of 45 billion cubic meters of surface water per year from the Yangtze River in southern China to the Yellow River and Hai River Basin in northern China, but how that supply is able to cope with droughts under different scenarios has not been explored. In this study, using the water demand for 2020 as the guaranteed water target, a Water Evaluation and Planning system was used to simulate available water supplies in Beijing under different drought scenarios. In the case of a single-year drought, without the MR-SNWDP, Beijing's water shortage ratio was 16.7%; with the MR-SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.3%. In the case of a multi-year drought, without the MR-SNWDP, Beijing's water shortage ratio was 25.3%; with the MR-SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.4% and domestic water supply was improved. Our research suggests that to prepare for multi-year drought in the Beijing area, the SNWDP supports increased supplies to the region that would mitigate drought effects. This study is, however, mostly focused on water supply provision to Beijing and does not comprehensively evaluate other potential impacts. Multiple additional avenues could be pursued that include replenishing groundwater, increasing reservoir storage, and water conservation methods. Further research is needed to explore the relative costs and benefits of these approaches.
机译：自2015年实施以来，南水北调中线（MR-SNWDP）每年平均将450亿立方米的地表水从中国南方的长江转移到黄河和中国北部的海河流域，但尚未探讨该供应如何应对不同情况下的干旱。在这项研究中，以2020年的用水需求为保证的水目标，使用了水评估和计划系统来模拟北京在不同干旱情况下的可用水供应。在没有MR-SNWDP的一年干旱的情况下，北京的缺水率为16.7％。使用MR-SNWDP时，该比例降低到7.3％。在多年干旱的情况下，如果没有MR-SNWDP，北京的缺水率为25.3％。使用MR-SNWDP，该比例降低到7.4％，生活用水得到改善。我们的研究表明，为了为北京地区的多年干旱做好准备，SNWDP支持增加对该地区的供应，以减轻干旱的影响。但是，这项研究主要集中在向北京供水方面，并未全面评估其他潜在影响。可以寻求多种其他途径，包括补充地下水，增加水库存储和节水方法。需要进一步研究以探索这些方法的相对成本和收益。

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