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Risk Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in China

机译：中国水资源承载力风险评估

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摘要

As a fundamental natural resource and a strategic economic resource, water resources play a key supporting role in the process of social and economic development. In this paper, risk factors influencing the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) were investigated based on risk theory and resources carrying capacity theory, and a method for the risk assessment of the WRCC was proposed. The vulnerability of WRCC system was evaluated by using the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method, the hazard of WRCC system was calculated by using the comprehensive hazard index, and then the risk of WRCC was obtained by combining the vulnerability with the hazard. The risk of WRCC in China due to climate change, urbanization, and industrialization was thoroughly investigated. The results demonstrated that the risk of WRCC was higher in Northern China than in Southern China and was higher in developed areas than in developing areas. The risk was observed to be highest in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Meanwhile, the results also suggested that the risk of WRCC can be reduced in two ways: (1) Reducing the pressure on the water resources carrying system caused by economic and social activities; and (2) increasing the water resources supply in certain areas. The risk assessment of the WRCC presented here provides a valuable reference for the management and sustainable utilization of water resources in China.
机译：作为一种基本的自然资源和战略经济资源，水资源在社会经济发展过程中发挥着关键的支持作用。本文研究了影响水资源承载能力（WRCC）的风险因素，基于风险理论和资源承载能力理论，提出了一种对WRCC风险评估的方法。通过使用模糊综合评价方法评估WRCC系统的脆弱性，通过使用综合危害指数计算WRCC系统的危害，然后通过将危险性与危害相结合来获得WRCC的风险。彻底调查了由于气候变化，城市化和工业化导致中国WRCC的风险。结果表明，中国北部的WRCC风险高于中国南部，发达地区的发达地区较高。在京津冀地区观察到风险最高。同时，结果还表明WRCC的风险可以两种方式减少：（1）减少经济和社会活动引起的水资源携带系统的压力; （2）增加某些地区的水资源供应。这里提出的WRCC的风险评估为中国水资源的管理和可持续利用提供了有价值的参考。

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