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International trade drivers and freight network analysis - The case of the Chinese air cargo sector

机译:国际贸易驱动力与货运网络分析-以中国航空货运业为例

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This study identifies the key drivers for China's international trade delivered by air with an augmented gravity model, and investigates the country's air freight network using complex network analysis. Gravity model estimation suggests that income elasticity for airborne trade at country level is 1.1, whereas the values for the three major economic zones are significantly higher. More importantly, we found that for China's international trade by air, the composition of economy is a more important driver than the size of economy. These results suggest that the Chinese air cargo sector will outpace the overall economic growth, with leading airports in the economic zones well-positioned to grow into major freight gateways. Air cargo demand in China was not as high as past GDP numbers suggested in the past, but is likely to experience sustained growth in the years to come. Network analysis suggests that cargo traffic volumes are concentrated in the catchments of metropolitan regions, where passenger hubs also serve as air cargo bases. However, domestic air freights currently mainly flow through a relatively small point-to-point network, suggesting that the leading airports are yet to become cargo gateway hubs despite their significant growth potential. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:这项研究通过增强引力模型确定了中国空运国际贸易的主要驱动力,并使用复杂的网络分析方法研究了中国的航空货运网络。重力模型估计表明,航空运输贸易在国家一级的收入弹性为1.1,而三个主要经济区的价值显着更高。更重要的是,我们发现,对于中国的航空国际贸易而言,经济构成比经济规模更重要。这些结果表明,中国的航空货运业将超过整体经济增长,而经济区内的领先机场已准备好发展成为主要的货运门户。中国的航空货运需求并不像过去的GDP数据那样高,但在未来几年中可能会持续增长。网络分析表明,货运量集中在大城市的集水区,那里的旅客枢纽也是航空货运基地。但是,目前国内航空货运主要通过相对较小的点对点网络流动,这表明领先的机场尽管具有巨大的增长潜力,但尚未成为货运门户枢纽。 (C)2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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