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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Transport Geography >Modelling airport choice behaviour for direct flights, connecting flights and different travel plans
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Modelling airport choice behaviour for direct flights, connecting flights and different travel plans

机译：为直航，转机和不同的旅行计划建模机场选择行为

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摘要

This paper aims to investigate and model airport choice behaviour in a multi-airport region in order to analyze some facets of the phenomenon scantily treated in the literature: the effects of type of flight connection, trip duration and departure date. The analysis made use of discrete choice random utility models estimated on an specific stated preferences survey. Homoscedastic and heteroscedastic formulations were estimated, different correlation structures were tested, non-linear effects of level of service attributes were investigated, and sensitivity analyses were performed. All was carried out in a hitherto unin-vestigated Italian multi-airport region (Campania, southern Italy). Major findings were: (i) access time, airfare, age, experience and income proved to be the most significant variables; (ii) non-linear transformation of access time and frequency (for direct flights) and of in-flight travel time (for connecting flights) appreciably improved models goodness-of-fit; (iii) correlation criteria based on geographical considerations or on operating airlines should be investigated; (iv) airport choices if only connecting flights are available cannot effectively be simulated through models estimated for direct flights; (v) airport choice probabilities may be significantly different as travel plans change; (vi) though Mixed Multinomial Logit and Cross-Nested Logit models statistically outperformed closed form formulations, Multinomial Logit model continue to be an effective modelling solution.
机译：本文旨在研究和建模多机场区域中的机场选择行为，以分析文献中很少处理的现象的某些方面：航班连接类型，行程时间和出发日期的影响。该分析利用了在特定陈述的偏好调查中估算的离散选择随机效用模型。估计了均方差和异方差的公式，测试了不同的相关结构，研究了服务属性级别的非线性影响，并进行了敏感性分析。所有工作均在迄今为止尚未调查的意大利多机场地区（意大利南部坎帕尼亚）进行。主要发现是：（i）出行时间，机票，年龄，经验和收入被证明是最重要的变量； （ii）准入时间和频率（对于直航）和飞行中旅行时间（对于中转航班）的非线性变换，显着改善了模型的拟合度； （iii）应研究基于地理因素或运营航空公司的相关标准； （iv）如果只能通过直航估算出的模型不能有效地模拟只有转机的机场选择； （v）随着旅行计划的改变，机场选择的可能性可能会大大不同； （vi）尽管混合多项式Lo​​git和交叉嵌套Logit模型在统计上优于封闭式公式，但多项式Lo​​git模型仍然是有效的建模解决方案。

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