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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Transport and Land Use >Simultaneous modeling of developer behavior and land prices in UrbanSim
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Simultaneous modeling of developer behavior and land prices in UrbanSim

机译：UrbanSim中开发商行为和土地价格的同时建模

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A strong inter-dependence exists between the decision to develop land and the expected re-nturns to be gained from that development. Current practice in UrbanSim modeling treats developernbehavior and the emergence of land prices as independent processes. ăis assumes that land prices arenexogenous to the interaction between buyers and sellers—an assumption that is difficult to sustain in ur-nban economics and real estate research.ăis paper presents an attempt tomodel the two processes as oc-ncurring simultaneously. Using theUrbanSimmodel formetropolitanTelAviv, we compare the results ofnforecasts for densities (residential and non-residential) and land values for the period 2001–2020. Ournresults show that simultaneous estimation tends to produce more accentuated outcomes and volatilentrends. ăe validity of these results and the implications of this approach in the wider context of landnuse modeling are discussed.
机译：在开发土地的决定与从该开发中获得的预期回报之间存在强烈的相互依赖性。 UrbanSim建模的当前实践将开发人员的行为和土地价格的出现视为独立的过程。 isis假定土地价格与买卖双方之间的互动无关，这是城市经济学和房地产研究难以维持的假设。isis论文提出了将两个过程同时发生的建模尝试。使用大都会特拉维夫城市模拟模型，我们比较了2001-2020年期间密度（居住和非居住）和土地价值的预测结果。我们的结果表明，同步估计往往会产生更加突出的结果和波动性。讨论了这些结果的有效性以及该方法在土地利用建模的更广泛上下文中的含义。

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