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Disappearance of American Wealth and Its Impact on Air Travel: An Empirical Investigation

机译：美国财富的消失及其对航空旅行的影响：一项实证研究

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Recently, the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. households net worth dropped by $17 trillion, a stunning 26% loss from the peak of the cycle to the bottom. The precipitous drop in home and stock prices that continued through the first quarter of 2009 accelerated the drop in household wealth. Meanwhile, U.S. air travel suffered tremendously. While the economy contracted by around 1% in 2008 and the first part of 2009, total domestic enplanement dropped more than 4% over its 2007 level. Gross domestic product (GDP) or some other measure of current income has been a good predictor of air travel in the past. While current income is considered to be a good proxy for current discretionary spending, of which air travel is only one small part, recent destruction of wealth has significantly reduced the average consumer's traditional appetite for expenditure, including air travel. Interestingly, there is very little empirical analysis that establishes a link between wealth and air travel. The paper seeks to address this gap by asking and investigating two empirical questions: (a) Does wealth have any quantifiable impact on U.S. air travel, controlling for all other relevant variables such as current income, past wealth, fare, and credit availability? (b) What has been the quantitative impact of wealth loss on air travel? The paper finds that the household wealth loss of U.S. $17 trillion yielded a loss of air travel demand of 730,000 passengers; or a loss of revenue of $244 million. As household wealth improved during the last two years, air travel recovered. Some of the lost passenger demand has been recouped (435,000) but a complete wealth-induced recovery still seems to be far off. Results of this analysis are important for both understanding future transitions in U.S. air travel, and hence forecasting, and formulating policy responses that may be designed more narrowly and effectively.
机译：最近，美联储（Fed）报告称，美国家庭的净资产下降了17万亿美元，从周期的高峰到谷底，损失了惊人的26％。持续到2009年第一季度的房屋和股票价格的急剧下跌加速了家庭财富的下降。同时，美国的航空旅行遭受了巨大损失。尽管经济在2008年和2009年上半年萎缩了约1％，但国内飞机总空运量却比2007年下降了4％以上。过去，国内生产总值（GDP）或当前收入的其他某种衡量指标可以很好地预测航空旅行。尽管当前收入被认为是当前可支配支出的良好代表，其中航空旅行只是其中的一小部分，但最近对财富的破坏已经大大降低了普通消费者的传统支出需求，包括航空旅行。有趣的是，很少有经验分析可以建立财富与航空旅行之间的联系。本文试图通过询问和调查两个经验问题来解决这一差距：（a）财富是否控制了所有其他相关变量，如当期收入，过去财富，票价和信贷可用性，对美国的航空旅行有可量化的影响？ （b）财富损失对航空旅行的量化影响是什么？报告发现，家庭财富损失达17万亿美元，导致航空旅行需求减少了730,000人；或收入损失2.44亿美元。在过去两年中，随着家庭财富的增长，航空旅行得以恢复。一些失去的旅客需求已经得到弥补（435,000），但是似乎完全没有由财富引起的复苏。该分析的结果对于理解美国航空旅行的未来过渡，从而进行预测以及制定可以更狭窄和更有效地设计的政策对策都很重要。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of the Transportation Research Forum》 |2012年第1期|p.71-91|共21页
  • 作者

    Dipasis Bhadra;

  • 作者单位

    Office of Aviation Policy and Plans at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation;

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