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A Markov model of terrorist behavior within the aviation security environment

机译:航空安全环境下恐怖行为的马尔可夫模型

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摘要

Methods to improve deterrence in aviation security screening systems provide added value in their operation and performance. A mathematical tool is introduced to optimally allocate security resources, design effective deterrence procedures, and identify where emphasis should be placed to achieve the most effective deterrence. A continuous-time Markov chain is used to model terrorist behavior within the aviation security environment. The resulting nine-state Markov chain model addresses three levels of behavior, three levels of expertise, and three levels of inactivity. Optimization is used to identify parameter values that minimize terrorist activity. The focus application for this approach is aviation security, though the modeling methodology introduced can be used in any area of security or law enforcement.
机译:改善航空安检系统威慑力的方法可为其运行和性能提供附加价值。引入了一种数学工具,可以最佳地分配安全资源,设计有效的威慑程序,并确定应该重点放在哪里以实现最有效的威慑。连续时间的马尔可夫链用于模拟航空安全环境中的恐怖行为。由此产生的九状态马尔可夫链模型可解决行为的三个级别,专业知识的三个级别和不活动的三个级别。优化用于识别最小化恐怖活动的参数值。这种方法的重点应用是航空安全,尽管引入的建模方法可以用于任何安全或执法领域。

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