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A behavioural model of traffic congestion Endogenizing speed choice, traffic safety and time losses

机译:交通拥挤行为模型内生速度选择,交通安全和时间损失

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摘要

Conventional economic models of traffic congestion assume that the relation between traffic flow and speed is a technical one. This paper develops a behavioural model of traffic congestion, in which drivers optimize their speeds by trading off time costs, expected accident costs and fuel costs. Since the presence of other drivers affects the latter two cost components and hence the Nash equilibrium speed, a 'behavioural' speed-flow relationship results for which external congestion costs include expected accident costs and fuel costs, in addition to the time costs considered in the conventional model. It is demonstrated that the latter in fact even cancel in the calculation of optimal congestion tolls. The overall welfare optimum in our model is found to be off the speed-flow function, and off the average and marginal cost functions derived from it in the conventional approach. This full optimum requires tolls to be either accompanied by speed policies, or to be set as a function of speed. Using an empirically calibrated numerical simulation model, we illustrate these qualitative findings, and attempt to assess their potential empirical relevance.
机译:传统的交通拥堵经济模型假设交通流量和速度之间的关系是技术性的。本文建立了交通拥堵的行为模型,其中驾驶员通过权衡时间成本,预期事故成本和燃料成本来优化速度。由于其他因素的存在会影响后两个成本构成,进而影响纳什均衡速度,因此会产生“行为”速度-流量关系,为此,外部拥堵成本包括预期的事故成本和燃料成本,此外还考虑了时间成本。常规模型。事实证明,后者实际上甚至可以抵消最佳拥堵费的计算。我们模型中的整体福利最优与速度-流量函数不符,而与传统方法中由此得出的平均和边际成本函数不符。要达到这一最佳水平,就必须要有相应的收费政策,或者制定速度政策,或者将其设置为速度的函数。使用经验校准的数值模拟模型,我们说明了这些定性发现,并试图评估其潜在的经验相关性。

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