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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Sensitivity test and ensemble hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy
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Sensitivity test and ensemble hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy

机译：意大利Campi Flegrei对特弗拉尘埃落差的敏感性测试和整体危害评估

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摘要

We present the results of a statistical study on tephra dispersal in the case of a reactivation of the Campi Flegrei volcano. To represent the spectrum of possible eruptive sizes, four classes of eruptions were considered. Excluding the lava emission, three classes are explosive (Small, Medium, and Large) and can produce a significant quantity of volcanic ash. Hazard assessments were made through simulations of atmospheric dispersion of ash and lapilli, considering the full variability of winds and eruptive vents. The results are presented in form of conditional hazard curves given the occurrence of specific eruptive sizes, representative members of each size class, and then combined to quantify the conditional hazard given an eruption of any size. The main focus of this analysis was to constrain the epistemic uncertainty (i.e. associated with the level of scientific knowledge of phenomena), in order to provide unbiased hazard estimations. The epistemic uncertainty on the estimation of hazard curves was quantified, making use of scientifically acceptable alternatives to be aggregated in the final results. The choice of such alternative models was made after a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considered different weather databases, alternative modelling of submarine eruptive vents and tephra total grain-size distributions (TGSD) with a different relative mass fraction of fine ash, and the effect of ash aggregation. The results showed that the dominant uncertainty is related to the combined effect of the uncertainty with regard to the fraction of fine particles with respect to the total mass and on how ash aggregation is modelled. The latter is particularly relevant in the case of magma-water interactions during explosive eruptive phases, when a large fraction of fine ash can form accretionary lapilli that might contribute significantly in increasing the tephra load in the proximal areas. The variability induced by the use of different meteorological databases and the selected approach to modelling offshore eruptions were relatively insignificant. The uncertainty arising from the alternative implementations, which would have been neglected in standard (Bayesian) quantifications, were finally quantified by ensemble modelling, and represented by hazard and probability maps produced at different confidence levels. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
机译：我们介绍了在Campi Flegrei火山重新激活的情况下对特非拉扩散的统计研究结果。为了表示可能的爆发规模，我们考虑了四类爆发。除熔岩排放外，三类是爆炸性的（小，中和大），可产生大量的火山灰。考虑到风和喷口的完全可变性，通过模拟灰烬和青金石在大气中的扩散进行了危害评估。结果以条件危险曲线的形式给出，给出特定喷发尺寸的出现，每个尺寸类别的代表成员，然后合并以量化给出任何大小喷发的条件危险。该分析的主要重点是限制认知不确定性（即与现象的科学知识水平有关），以便提供无偏见的危害估计。对危险性曲线估计的认识不确定性进行了量化，并利用科学上可接受的替代方法汇总到最终结果中。在考虑了不同的天气数据库，考虑不同灰粉相对质量分数的海底喷口和特发拉总粒度分布（TGSD）的替代模型之后，经过全面的敏感性分析后，才选择了此类替代模型。聚合。结果表明，主要的不确定性与不确定性的综合影响有关，这些不确定性涉及细颗粒占总质量的比例以及如何模拟灰分聚集。后者在爆发性喷发阶段的岩浆与水相互作用的情况下尤为重要，这时大量细粉灰会形成增生性lapilli，可能会显着增加近端区域的提菲拉负荷。由于使用不同的气象数据库和选择的模拟海上喷发方法而引起的变化相对较小。在标准（贝叶斯（Bayesian））量化中可能会忽略的替代实现方式所带来的不确定性，最终通过集成建模进行量化，并以在不同置信度下生成的风险和概率图表示。 （C）2017作者。由Elsevier B.V.发布

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  • 作者

    Selva J.; Costa A.; De Natale G.; Di Vito M. A.; Isaia R.; Macedonio G.;

  • 作者单位

    Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Sez Bologna, Via D Creti 12, I-40128 Bologna, Italy;

    Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Sez Bologna, Via D Creti 12, I-40128 Bologna, Italy;

    Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, I-80124 Naples, Italy;

    Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, I-80124 Naples, Italy;

    Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, I-80124 Naples, Italy;

    Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, I-80124 Naples, Italy;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    PVHA; Tephra fallout; Campi Flegrei; Sensitivity; Ash aggregation;

    机译：PVHA;Tephra沉降;Campi Flegrei;敏感性;Ash聚集;

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