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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >An accelerating precursor to predict 'time-to-failure' in creep and volcanic eruptions
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An accelerating precursor to predict 'time-to-failure' in creep and volcanic eruptions

机译：预测蠕变和火山喷发“破坏时间”的加速前兆

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Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Omega Omega(similar to 1) = C (t(f) - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where LI represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：通过监视响应变量的演变进行实时预测是预测岩石破坏的主要目标。已经开发出线性关系Omega Omega（类似于1）= C（t（f）-t）来描述失效时间，其中LI表示响应量，C是常数，tf表示失效时间。实验室蠕变破坏实验和火山爆发的前兆的观测值被用来测试该方法的有效性。累积和简单的移动窗口技术都可以用来执行预测并说明数据选择对结果的影响。在花岗岩上进行的实验室蠕变破坏实验表明，线性关系在最终破坏途径中效果很好。对于盲目预测，首选简单的移动窗口技术，因为它始终使用最新数据，并且排除了早期数据明显偏离预测趋势的影响。当预测结果显示出很小的波动时，故障就迫在眉睫。 （C）2017 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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