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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy
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Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy

机译：大火球：一种量化与弹道学相关危险的概率方法-以意大利武尔卡诺岛拉福萨火山为例

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摘要

We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs accounting for a variable drag coefficient and topography. It relies on input parameters easily identifiable in the field and is designed to model large numbers of VBPs stochastically. Associated functions come with the GBF code to post-process model outputs into a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for VBP impacts. Outcomes include probability maps to exceed given thresholds of kinetic energies at impact, hazard curves and probabilistic isoenergy maps. Probabilities are calculated either on equally-sized pixels or zones of interest.
机译：我们提出一种概率方法来量化火山弹道弹丸（VBP）构成的危害及其对建筑环境的潜在影响。引入了一个名为“大火球”（GBF）的模型来描述考虑了可变阻力系数和地形的VBP的弹道。它依赖于在现场易于识别的输入参数，并旨在随机建模大量VBP。 GBF代码附带了相关功能，可将模型输出后处理为对VBP影响的综合概率危害评估。结果包括在撞击时超过给定动能阈值的概率图，危险曲线和概率等能量图。在相等大小的像素或感兴趣区域上计算概率。

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