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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis
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Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis

机译：通过贝叶斯推断进行短期火山灾害评估：追溯应用于1991年Pinatubo火山危机

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摘要

One of the most challenging aspects of managing a volcanic crisis is the interpretation of the monitoring data, so as to anticipate to the evolution of the unrest and implement timely mitigation actions. An unrest episode may include different stages or time intervals of increasing activity that may or may not precede a volcanic eruption, depending on the causes of the unrest (magmatic, geothermal or tectonic). Therefore, one of the main goals in monitoring volcanic unrest is to forecast whether or not such increase of activity will end up with an eruption, and if this is the case, how, when, and where this eruption will take place. As an alternative method to expert elicitation for assessing and merging monitoring data and relevant past information, we present a probabilistic method to transform precursory activity into the probability of experiencing a significant variation by the next time interval (i.e. the next step in the unrest), given its preceding evolution, and by further estimating the probability of the occurrence of a particular eruptive scenario combining monitoring and past data. With the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic crisis as a reference, we have developed such a method to assess short-term volcanic hazard using Bayesian inference.
机译：应对火山危机最具挑战性的方面之一是对监测数据的解释，以预测动乱的发展并及时采取缓解措施。骚动事件可能包括活动增加的不同阶段或时间间隔，可能取决于火山爆发的原因（岩浆，地热或构造），该活动可能在火山喷发之前发生，也可能不在火山爆发之前。因此，监测火山爆发动荡的主要目标之一是预测火山活动的增加是否会以喷发为最终结果，如果是这种情况，则将预测喷发的方式，时间和地点。作为评估和合并监视数据和相关过去信息的专家启发的替代方法，我们提出了一种概率方法，将先验活动转化为在下一个时间间隔（即动荡的下一步）经历重大变化的概率，给出其先前的演变过程，并通过结合监测数据和过去的数据进一步估算发生特定喷发情景的可能性。以1991年的Pinatubo火山危机为参考，我们开发了一种使用贝叶斯推论评估短期火山灾害的方法。

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