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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Estimating volcanic ash hazard in European airspace
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Estimating volcanic ash hazard in European airspace

机译：估算欧洲领空中的火山灰危害

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The widespread disruption of European air traffic in late April 2010, during the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, showed the importance of early assessment of volcanic hazard from explosive eruptions. In this study, we focus on the short-term hazard of airborne ash from a climatological perspective, focusing on eruptions on Iceland. By studying eruptions of different intensity and frequency, we estimate the overall probability that ash concentration levels considered hazardous to aviation are exceeded over different parts of Europe. The method involves setting up a range of eruption scenarios based on the eruptive history of Icelandic volcanoes, and repeated simulation of these scenarios for 2 years' worth of meteorological data. Simulations are conducted using meteorological data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis set, which is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The weather data are then used to drive the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF for each of the eruption scenarios. A set of threshold values, commonly used in Volcanic Ash Advisories, are used to analyze concentration data from the dispersion model. We see that the dispersion of ash is highly dominated by the mid-latitude westerlies and mainly affect northern UK and the Scandinavian peninsula. The occurrence of high ash levels from Icelandic volcanoes is lower over continental Europe but should not be neglected for eruptions when the release rate of fine ash (＜16 μm) is in the order of 10~7 kg s~(-1) or higher. There is a clear seasonal variation in the ash hazard. During the summer months, the dominating dispersion direction is less distinct with some plumes extending to the northwest and Greenland. In contrast, during the winter months, the strong westerly winds tend to transport most of the emissions eastwards. The affected area of a winter-time eruption is likely to be larger as high concentrations can be found at a further distance downwind from the volcano, effectively increasing the probability of hazardous levels of ash reaching the European continent. The concentration thresholds for aviation, which were adopted after the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, have strong influence on the hazard estimates for weaker eruptions but is less important for larger eruptions; thus ash forecasts for weaker eruptions are likely more uncertain in comparison to larger eruptions.
机译：在Eyjafjallajokull喷发期间，欧洲空中交通在2010年4月下旬受到广泛破坏，这表明了对爆炸爆发的火山危害进行早期评估的重要性。在这项研究中，我们从气候学的角度着眼于空气中灰分的短期危害，重点是冰岛的火山爆发。通过研究不同强度和频率的喷发，我们估算了欧洲不同地区超过被认为对航空有害的灰分浓度的总体概率。该方法包括根据冰岛火山的喷发史建立一系列的喷发情景，并用2年的气象数据对这些情景进行重复模拟。使用ERA-Interim重新分析集中的气象数据进行模拟，该数据使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型进行了缩减。然后，将气象数据用于驱动每种喷发场景的拉格朗日粒子弥散模型FLEXPART-WRF。火山灰咨询中常用的一组阈值用于分析分散模型中的浓度数据。我们看到灰分的散布在中纬度西风中占主导地位，主要影响英国北部和斯堪的纳维亚半岛。在欧洲大陆上，冰岛火山中高灰分的发生率较低，但当细灰分（＜16μm）的释放速率为10〜7 kg s〜（-1）或更高时，不应忽略喷发。灰烬危害有明显的季节性变化。在夏季，主要的散布方向不太明显，有些羽流延伸到西北和格陵兰。相反，在冬季，强西风往往将大部分排放物向东输送。冬季喷发的影响区域可能更大，因为在距火山下风较远的地方可以发现高浓度的火山灰，从而有效地增加了达到欧洲大陆的有害灰烬含量的可能性。在2010年艾雅法拉火山爆发之后采用的航空浓度阈值，对较弱喷发的危险估计有很大影响，但对较大喷发的影响较小。因此，与较大的火山爆发相比，火山灰对较弱火山爆发的预测可能更加不确定。

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