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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >A GIS-based volcanic hazard and risk assessment of eruptions sourced within Valles Caldera, New Mexico
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A GIS-based volcanic hazard and risk assessment of eruptions sourced within Valles Caldera, New Mexico

机译：基于GIS的新墨西哥州Valles Caldera内火山爆发的火山灾害和风险评估

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The objective of this study is to evaluate the spatial extent of a possible future eruption using a GIS-based volcanic hazard tool designed to simulate pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) as well as lava flows and to assess the social and economic vulnerabilities of the area at risk. Simulated pyroclastic fallout deposits originating from the El Cajete crater within the Valles Caldera, Jemez Mountains volcanic field. New Mexico, are calibrated to isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete as constructed by Wolff et al. (2011). The change in the axial orientation of fallout deposits between the Lower and Upper El Cajete is best matched using seasonal variations in wind speed and direction based on modern atmospheric records. The calibration of PDCs is based on the distribution and run-out of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are simulated at a second vent location determined from probability distributions of structural features. The resulting hazard simulation maps show the potential distribution of pyroclastic fallout, PDCs and lava flows, indicating areas to the S/SE of Valles Caldera to be at greatest risk. To assess hazard preparedness, social vulnerability is evaluated for all census-designated places (CDPs) within the study site. Based on methods by the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, twenty-four variables were selected as proxies of social vulnerability and a principal component analysis was used to generate eight components, which account for 64% of the total variance. The eight component scores are summed into a final score for each CDP, and the standard deviations from the mean of the scores are mapped with the CDPs, allowing for an easy visualization of areas that are considered more socially vulnerable. Economic vulnerability is evaluated through a multi-criteria evaluation of population, infrastructure, road types and land use. Each variable is categorized and assigned a value representing relative vulnerability based on cost and importance. The variables are assigned weights relative to one another through a pairwise comparison and summed together into a final map showing the distribution of economic vulnerability, which is useful when used with the hazard simulation maps for targeting areas for mitigation to reduce economic loss. In order to evaluate the overall risk, the hazard simulation maps and vulnerability assessments are aggregated through weighted linear combination and pairwise comparison matrices, creating a total of three risk maps. Although the actual maps provide greater detail, overall, based on the criteria chosen, the risk maps show that pyroclastic fallout has the greatest impact, effecting areas up to 50 km S/SE of the Valles Caldera, including highly vulnerable cities, such as Los Alamos and White Rock. The PDC and lava flow hazards, however, impact significantly smaller areas, primarily disturbing forested land. The methodology presented in this paper allows for a robust analysis of the risks posed by eruptions sourced from the Valles Caldera and is especially useful in focusing mitigation strategies to reduce the loss from such hazardous events.
机译：这项研究的目的是使用基于GIS的火山灾害工具评估未来可能爆发的空间范围，该工具旨在模拟火山碎屑沉降和密度流（PDC）以及熔岩流，并评估火山喷发的社会和经济脆弱性。危险区域。模拟的热碎屑沉积物沉积物，起源于杰米兹山火山场瓦雷斯火山口内的埃尔卡耶特火山口。根据Wolff等人的构造，对新墨西哥州进行了下部El Cajete上部和上部El Cajete的等值线和岩性等值线图校准。 （2011）。根据现代大气记录，利用风速和风向的季节性变化，可以最佳地匹配El Elajete下部和El Cajete上部之间的沉降物轴向分布变化。 PDC的校准基于Battleship Rock Ignimbrite的分布和跳动。一旦校准，就可以根据结构特征的概率分布确定的第二个通风口位置模拟危险。生成的危害模拟图显示了火山碎屑沉降，PDC和熔岩流的潜在分布，表明Valles Caldera的S / SE区域处于最大风险。为了评估灾害的防范能力，对研究地点内所有人口普查指定场所（CDP）的社会脆弱性进行了评估。根据危害与脆弱性研究所的方法，选择了24个变量作为社会脆弱性的代理，并使用主成分分析生成了8个成分，占总方差的64％。对于每个CDP，将八个组成部分的分数相加为最终分数，并且将与分数均值的标准差与CDP进行映射，从而可以轻松地可视化被认为更具社会脆弱性的区域。通过对人口，基础设施，道路类型和土地使用的多标准评估来评估经济脆弱性。每个变量都经过分类，并根据成本和重要性分配了代表相对脆弱性的值。通过成对比较为变量分配相对权重，并将这些权重加在一起形成一个显示经济脆弱性分布的最终地图，该地图与危害模拟地图一起用于确定缓解区域以减少经济损失时非常有用。为了评估总体风险，通过加权线性组合和成对比较矩阵汇总了危害模拟图和脆弱性评估，从而创建了三个风险图。尽管实际地图会提供更多详细信息，但总体而言，根据选择的标准，风险地图显示，火山碎屑沉降的影响最大，影响了Valles Caldera最高S / SE达50 km的区域，包括洛杉矶等高度脆弱的城市阿拉莫斯和白石。但是，PDC和熔岩流危害严重影响了较小的区域，主要是干扰林地。本文介绍的方法可以对瓦勒斯火山口喷发造成的风险进行有力的分析，在集中缓解战略以减少此类危险事件造成的损失方面特别有用。

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