• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Forecasting seismo-volcanic activity by using the dynamical behavior of volcanic earthquake rates
【24h】

Forecasting seismo-volcanic activity by using the dynamical behavior of volcanic earthquake rates

机译：利用火山地震速率的动力学行为预测地震火山活动

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

We present a novel approach for short-term forecasting of volcano seismic activity. Volcanic earthquakes can be seen as a response mechanism of the earth crust to stresses induced by magma injection. From this point of view the temporal evolution of seismicity can be represented as a diffusion process which compensates pressure differences. By means of this dynamical approach we are able to estimate the system behavior in the near future which in turn allows us to forecast the evolution of the earthquake rate for the next time span from actual and past observations. For this purpose we model the earthquake rate as a random walk process embedded in a moving and deforming potential function. The center of the potential function is given by a moving average of the random walk's trace. We successfully apply this procedure to estimate the next day seismicity at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, over a time period of six years. When comparing the dynamical approach to the well known method of material failure forecast we find much better predictions of the critical stages of volcanic activity using the new approach.
机译：我们提出了一种火山地震活动的短期预测的新方法。火山地震可以看作是地壳对岩浆注入引起的应力的响应机制。从这个角度来看，地震活动的时间演化可以表示为补偿压力差的扩散过程。通过这种动态方法，我们能够估计不久的将来的系统行为，从而使我们能够根据实际和过去的观测结果来预测下一个时间跨度的地震速率变化。为此，我们将地震速率建模为嵌入在移动和变形势函数中的随机游走过程。势函数的中心由随机游走轨迹的移动平均值给出。我们成功地应用了此程序，以估算了为期六年的蒙特塞拉特Soufriere Hills火山第二天的地震活动。将动力学方法与众所周知的材料破坏预测方法进行比较时，我们发现使用新方法可以更好地预测火山活动的关键阶段。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号