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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Evaluation of geophysical mass flow models using the 2006 block-and-ash flows of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia: Towards a short-term hazard assessment tool
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Evaluation of geophysical mass flow models using the 2006 block-and-ash flows of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia: Towards a short-term hazard assessment tool

机译：使用印尼爪哇岛默拉皮火山的2006年灰烬流评估地球物理质量流模型：建立短期危害评估工具

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The dynamics and depositional processes associated with block-and-ash flows (BAFs) are most commonly in-ferred to be a function of granular or inertial grain flow, similar to debris flows and cold rock avalanches. Existing geophysical mass flow models are either based on frictional (Mohr-Coulomb) behavior (the Titan2D model developed at the State University of New York at Buffalo, USA) or another Theological law (i.e., a con-stant retarding stress), eventually adding some viscous and turbulent components (the VolcFlow model de-veloped at the Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Clermont-Ferrand, France). The 2006 BAFs of Merapi present a rare opportunity to test these two well-established models against a well-constrained field example. Integra-tion of high-resolution field-based data into numerical simulations allows the validity of these models to be tested and rapid quantification of best-fit input parameters. We first show that with the incorporation of spa-tially varying bed friction angles, Titan2D is capable of reproducing the paths, runout distances, areas covered and deposited volumes of the 2006 Merapi flows over highly complex topography. However, some discrep-ancies with field data are noted and the velocity and travel time of the flows do not match entirely. Using a single free parameter (a constant retarding stress), simulations obtained with the VolcFlow model also repro-duce the morphology and distribution of the natural deposits as well as the time of emplacement and veloc-ities of the flows. The results suggest that the performance of these models in simulating actual events is critically dependent on: (1) the calibration of the model by using extensive field-based data such as deposit distribution, and processes of flow generation, transport and deposition; (2) the incorporation of a suitable numerical topographic dataset (i.e., high-resolution digital elevation model), and (3) the choice of input parameters, such as location and volume of the initial pile of material and source characteristics (single or multiple dome-collapse, dome-collapse duration and total volume of collapsed material). Sensitivity analyses and inundation maps based on the probability of impact were used to produce a suite of potentially inundat-ed areas from future gravitational dome-collapse events affecting the Gendol valley and adjacent areas on the southern flank of the volcano. Our results provide the basis for defining hazard zonations of key areas at risk from BAFs which will be generated during future comparable eruptions at Merapi.
机译：与块灰流（BAF）相关的动力学和沉积过程通常被推定为颗粒或惯性颗粒流的函数，类似于泥石流和冷岩雪崩。现有的地球物理质量流模型要么基于摩擦（Mohr-Coulomb）行为（美国纽约州布法罗州立大学开发的Titan2D模型），要么基于其他神学定律（即恒定的缓应力），最终添加一些粘性和湍流成分（VolcFlow模型在法国克莱蒙费朗的实验室Magmas et Volcans开发）。默拉皮（Merapi）的2006年BAF提供了一个难得的机会，可以在一个受限的现场实例中测试这两个公认的模型。将基于现场的高分辨率数据集成到数值模拟中可以测试这些模型的有效性，并可以快速量化最佳拟合输入参数。我们首先表明，通过结合空间变化的床层摩擦角，Titan2D能够在高度复杂的地形上再现2006 Merapi流的路径，跳动距离，覆盖面积和沉积量。但是，会注意到一些与现场数据的差异，并且流的速度和传播时间并不完全匹配。使用单个自由参数（恒定的延迟应力），用VolcFlow模型获得的模拟结果也可以重现天然沉积物的形态和分布以及流动的时间和速度。结果表明，这些模型在模拟实际事件中的性能关键取决于：（1）通过使用大量基于现场的数据（例如沉积物分布以及流产生，输送和沉积过程）对模型进行校准； （2）合并合适的数值地形数据集（即高分辨率数字高程模型），以及（3）输入参数的选择，例如初始材料堆的位置和体积以及源特征（单个或多个）圆顶塌陷，圆顶塌陷持续时间和塌陷物料的总体积）。基于影响概率的敏感性分析和淹没图被用来从未来的重力穹顶崩塌事件中产生一系列潜在的淹没区域，这些事件会影响金多尔河谷和火山南翼的相邻区域。我们的研究结果为定义BAF面临危险的关键区域的危险区域提供了基础，这些区域将在未来Merapi的类似喷发过程中产生。

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