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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard with assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data
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Probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard with assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data

机译：地球物理和构造数据同化的长期火山灾害概率估计

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摘要

Risk assessments in relation to the siting of potential geological repositories require the estimation of long-term volcanic hazard. Owing to their tectonic situation, many industrial regions around the world are concerned by such evaluation. For sites near volcanically active regions, the prevailing source of uncertainty is long-term volcanic hazard. The complexity and non-linearity of volcanic processes, the space-time variability in terms of distribution and intensity for volcanic events and the limited amount of information make probabilistic estimation of volcanic hazard ineluctable. The needs for reliable methodologies for volcanic and tectonic hazard assessments in Japan have stimulated the development of specific stochastic models for improving uncertainty characterization. A conditional Cox process with a multivariate potential was developed for the assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data (gravity data, GPS strain rate data and active faults). The theoretical basis and concepts of the proposed model are given and a methodological illustration is provided using data from the island of Kyushu.
机译：与潜在地质库位置有关的风险评估需要对长期火山灾害进行评估。由于其构造情况，全世界许多工业地区都对这种评估表示关注。对于火山活动区附近的站点，不确定性的主要来源是长期的火山危害。火山过程的复杂性和非线性，火山事件的分布和强度的时空变化以及有限的信息量使得不可避免地估计火山灾害的可能性。在日本，对于可靠的火山和构造灾害评估方法学的需求刺激了特定随机模型的发展，以改善不确定性特征。为了同化地球物理和构造数据（重力数据，GPS应变率数据和活动断层），开发了具有多元潜力的条件Cox过程。给出了所提出模型的理论基础和概念，并使用来自九州岛的数据提供了方法论说明。

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