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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Stability of a collapsing volcano (Stromboli, Italy): Limit equilibrium analysis and numerical modelling
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Stability of a collapsing volcano (Stromboli, Italy): Limit equilibrium analysis and numerical modelling

机译：火山坍塌的稳定性（意大利斯特龙博利）：极限平衡分析和数值模拟

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Stromboli is an active island volcano, belonging to the Aeolian Archipelago (Italy). In the last 13 ka it experienced four lateral collapses affecting its northwestern flank, with its most recent volcanic crisis (December 2002) associated with landslides and related tsunami events. This paper presents the first stability analysis of the Stromboli volcanic edifice. The main input is the geotechnical model of the volcano, defined on the basis of stratigraphical, lithological, material properties, and structural data, collected from in-situ surveys and laboratory tests. Two-dimensional stability analysis was performed by limit equilibrium methods (LEM) and finite difference modelling (FLAC 4.0 code), mainly focusing on the subaerial part of Stromboli's NW flank (Sciara del Fuoco). The variability of the Safety Factor was studied by deterministic, sensitivity and probabilistic analysis focusing on the effect of external forces, such as magma pressure and seismicity, as potential triggering mechanisms of lateral collapse. The LEM analyses were developed considering a maximum depth of 150-350 m for the sliding surface, to which correspond collapse volumes of 95,000-185,000 m~3/m, respectively. The study shows that, without external forces, the investigated rock mass is stable and that the tectonic seismicity of the area alone does not destabilize the studied slope. On the contrary, magma pressure in dykes can represent a destabilizing factor. Numerical modelling results are concordant with those from LEM. In addition, the simulation reveals that deformations and superficial landslides, preannounce and contribute to retrogressive plasticization and maybe to failure surface deepening. Shallow submarine landslides represent a possible triggering mechanism, and the landslide events of 30 December 2002 consistently fit the simulated evolution. FLAC has revealed to be a useful tool for modelling such a complex system, it allowed to calibrate the response of the geotechnical model, test the validity of the assumptions, simulate the stress-strain evolution, and prepare a possible model for future scenarios.
机译：斯特龙博利岛（Stromboli）是一座活跃的岛上火山，属于风神群岛（意大利）。在最近的13 ka中，它经历了四次横向塌陷，影响了其西北翼，其最近的火山危机（2002年12月）与滑坡和相关的海啸事件有关。本文介绍了斯特龙博利火山大厦的首次稳定性分析。主要输入是火山的岩土模型，它是根据地层，岩性，材料特性和结构数据定义的，这些数据是从现场调查和实验室测试中收集的。二维稳定性分析是通过极限平衡法（LEM）和有限差分建模（FLAC 4.0代码）进行的，主要关注Stromboli的西北翼（Sciara del Fuoco）的空中部分。通过确定性，敏感性和概率分析研究了安全系数的可变性，重点是岩浆压力和地震活动性等外力的作用，作为侧向坍塌的潜在触发机制。考虑到滑动表面的最大深度为150-350 m，开发了LEM分析，相应的坍塌体积分别为95,000-185,000 m〜3 / m。研究表明，在没有外力的情况下，所研究的岩体是稳定的，仅该地区的构造地震活动并不会使所研究的边坡不稳定。相反，堤坝中的岩浆压力可能代表不稳定因素。数值模拟结果与LEM的结果一致。此外，模拟结果表明，变形和表层滑坡会预先宣布，并有助于进行逆向塑化，并可能导致破坏表面加深。浅层海底滑坡代表了一种可能的触发机制，2002年12月30日的滑坡事件始终符合模拟的演变过程。 FLAC被证明是对这样一个复杂系统建模的有用工具，它可以校准岩土模型的响应，测试假设的有效性，模拟应力应变的演变以及为将来的情况准备可能的模型。

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