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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of water and climate change >Nonparametric quantile mapping using the response surface method - bias correction of daily precipitation
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Nonparametric quantile mapping using the response surface method - bias correction of daily precipitation

机译：使用响应面法的非参数分位数制图-日降水量的偏差校正

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Currently, regional climate models are widely used to provide projections of how climate may change locally. However, they sometimes have a spatial resolution that is too coarse to provide an appropriate resolution for the local scale. In this paper, a new nonparametric quantile mapping method based on the response surface method was proposed to perform an efficient and robust bias correction. The proposed method was applied to correct the bias of the simulated precipitation for the period of 1976-2005, and the performance and uncertainty were subsequently assessed. As a result, the proposed method was effectively able to reduce the biases of the entire distribution range, and to predict new extreme precipitation. The future precipitation based on representative concentration pathways of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were bias corrected using the proposed method, and the impacts of the climate scenarios were compared. It was found that the average annual precipitations increased compared to the past for both scenarios, and they tended to increase over time in the three studied areas. The uncertainty of future precipitation was slightly higher than in the past observation period.
机译：当前，区域气候模型被广泛用于提供气候如何在当地变化的预测。但是，有时它们的空间分辨率太粗糙，无法为局部比例尺提供适当的分辨率。本文提出了一种基于响应面法的新的非参数分位数映射方法，以进行高效，鲁棒的偏差校正。将该方法应用于校正1976-2005年期间模拟降水的偏差，并随后评估了其性能和不确定性。结果，所提出的方法有效地减少了整个分布范围的偏差，并预测了新的极端降水。使用提出的方法对基于RCP 4.5和8.5的代表性浓度路径的未来降水进行了偏差校正，并比较了气候情景的影响。结果发现，在两种情况下，平均年降水量都比过去有所增加，并且在三个研究区域中，随着时间的推移它们倾向于增加。未来降水的不确定性略高于过去的观测期。

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