...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management >Stochastic Scenarios for 21 st Century Rainfall Seasonality, Daily Frequency, and Intensity in South Florida
【24h】

Stochastic Scenarios for 21 st Century Rainfall Seasonality, Daily Frequency, and Intensity in South Florida

机译：南佛罗里达州的21世纪降雨季节性，每日频率和强度的随机情景

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

We demonstrate that a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) can be useful for simulating future daily rainfall at 19 stations in South Florida. Using upper atmosphere circulation variables that are typically better represented than precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs), a NHMM conditioned on GCM circulation variables is shown to provide credible stochastic simulations of daily precipitation for future conditions. Seasonality changes as well as changes in seasonal extreme precipitation quantiles, total seasonal rainfall, and number of wet days are assessed. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulation of the coupled ocean-atmosphere Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Climate Model CMCC-CMS for 1948-2100 is used for the demonstration. Seasonality changes emerge naturally from the driving variables, and each season is not modeled separately. The future projections for CMCC-CMS indicate that South Florida may have drier conditions for most of the year. The number of wet days reduces, while extreme rainfall frequency increases. These findings are consistent with recent rainfall trends. A modest reduction in total rainfall in the February-May period and a slight increase in the September-October projected rainfall is noted. Changes in the expression of the North Atlantic subtropical high in the CMCC-CMS simulations appear to influence the new seasonality and patterns of rainfall. (C) 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
机译：我们证明了非均匀隐马尔可夫模型（NHMM）可用于在南佛罗里达州的19个站模拟未来日落降雨量。使用比普通循环模型（GCMS）中的降水更好的上大气循环变量（GCMS），显示了GCM循环变量的NHMM条件，为未来条件提供了每日降水的可信随机模拟。评估季节性变化以及季节性极端降水量，季节性降雨量的变化以及潮湿的天数。耦合型号互相熟悉的项目第5阶段欧洲气候变化气候变化气候模型CMCC-CMS的欧洲地中海欧洲地中海中心用于演示。季节性变化自然地从驱动变量出现，并且每个季节都没有单独建模。 CMCC-CM的未来预测表明，南佛罗里达州的大部分年度都可能有更干燥的条件。潮湿的天数减少，而极端的降雨频率增加。这些调查结果与最近的降雨趋势一致。在2月至5月期间，每月的较为降雨量和9月至10月投影降雨量的略微增加。 CMCC-CMS模拟中北大西洋亚热带高度表达的变化似乎影响了新的季节性和降雨模式。 （c）2020年美国土木工程师协会。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management》 |2020年第8期|04020058.1-04020058.12|共12页
  • 作者

    Cioffi Francesco; Conticello Federico Rosario; Lall Upmanu;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn I-00184 Rome Italy;

    Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn I-00184 Rome Italy;

    Columbia Univ Dept Earth & Environm Engn New York NY 10027 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号