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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management >Assessing Countermeasure Effectiveness in Controlling Cyanobacterial Exceedance in Riverine Systems Using Probabilistic Forecasting Alternatives
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Assessing Countermeasure Effectiveness in Controlling Cyanobacterial Exceedance in Riverine Systems Using Probabilistic Forecasting Alternatives

机译：使用概率预测替代品评估控制河流系统中蓝藻超标的对策效果

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Cyanobacterial blooms are expected to be more frequent over time as more favorable environmental conditions are created in a warming climate. This study proposes strategies to effectively mitigate/reduce the concentration of cyanobacterial blooms based on probabilistic modeling. The model adopted in this study is a probabilistic forecasting model of cyanobacteria cell counts that uses two dominant variables contributing to cyanobacterial bloom in a river: water temperature (T) and water velocity (V). Both T and V can be manipulated by controlling the upstream flow in the river through altering reservoir operations, thereby changing water release downstream. We test and evaluate a variety of discharge scenarios in two river systems in South Korea. Our findings suggest that releasing cold dam water is quite effective in suppressing cyanobacterial bloom growth. We extend the analysis by also including the cost of each operation and conducting a cost-benefit analysis. Following this, we propose response scenarios for each river system by which optimal proactive actions can be taken according to river conditions. (c) 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
机译：随着在温暖的气候中创造更有利的环境条件，预计紫蓝绽放将更频繁地频繁。本研究提出了基于概率模型有效减轻/降低蓝藻绽放浓度的策略。本研究中采用的模型是用河流中的两个显性变量贡献的蓝细菌细胞计数的概率预测模型：水温（T）和水速度（V）。通过改变储存器操作来控制河上游流动，可以操纵T和V两者，从而改变水释放下游。我们在韩国进行两次河流系统中的各种放电情景。我们的研究结果表明，释放冷水坝水在抑制蓝藻绽放生长方面非常有效。我们还通过包括每个操作的成本并进行成本效益分析来扩展分析。在此之后，我们提出了每个河流系统的响应情景，通过该河流系统可以根据河流条件采取最佳主动动作。 （c）2021年美国土木工程师协会。

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