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Climate Change and Grapevines: A Simulation Study for the Mediterranean Basin

机译：气候变化与葡萄藤：地中海盆地的模拟研究

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摘要

The present paper aims to assess the impacts of climate change on grapevine cultivation in the Mediterranean basin by using three regional climatic models (RCMs), which were designed specifically for high-resolution simulation of climate in that region. RCM outputs were used to feed a grapevine growth simulation model, which was developed, tested, and calibrated for the Sangiovese variety. The study area was identified by implementing a bioclimatic classification of the regions based on the Winkler Index (ranging from 1,700 to 1,900 thermal units). The results indicated that the projected increasing temperatures will result in a general acceleration and shortening of the phenological stages compared to the present period. Accordingly, the reduction in time for biomass accumulation negatively affected the final yield. Few exceptions were found in the northern and central regions of the study area (southern France and western Balkans) for which changes in climatic conditions were not limiting and the crop benefited from the enhanced atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. (JEL Classifications: Q100, Q540).
机译：本文旨在通过使用三个区域气候模型（RCM）来评估气候变化对地中海盆地葡萄种植的影响，这三个模型专门设计用于该区域的高分辨率气候模拟。 RCM输出用于提供葡萄生长模拟模型，该模型是针对Sangiovese品种开发，测试和校准的。通过基于Winkler指数（范围从1,700到1,900热单位）对区域进行生物气候分类来确定研究区域。结果表明，与当前时期相比，预计升高的温度将导致物候阶段总体加速并缩短。因此，减少生物质积累的时间不利地影响了最终产量。在研究区域的北部和中部地区（法国南部和巴尔干西部），几乎没有发现例外，这些地区的气候条件变化不受限制，而且大气中二氧化碳浓度的升高使农作物受益。 （JEL分类：Q100，Q540）。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Wine Economics》 |2016年第1期|88-104|共17页
  • 作者

    Roberto Ferrise; Giacomo Trombi; Marco Moriondo; Marco Bindi;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy;

    Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy;

    CNR-IBIMET, Via G. Caproni 8, 50145 Florence, Italy;

    Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Climate change; crop model; grapevine; Mediterranean basin;

    机译：气候变化;作物模型葡萄藤;地中海盆地;

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