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首页> 外文期刊>JPKE: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics >Capital mobility, real exchange rate appreciation, and asset price bubbles in emerging economies: a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model for a small open economy
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Capital mobility, real exchange rate appreciation, and asset price bubbles in emerging economies: a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model for a small open economy

机译：新兴经济体的资本流动性，实际汇率升值和资产价格泡沫：凯恩斯主义之后的小型开放经济体宏观经济模型

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摘要

The objective of this paper is to show that open economies that have (1) a high degree of capital mobility, (2) a low degree of organization in financial markets, and (3) a high sensibility of net exports to changes in the level of economic activity may have bubbles in asset prices if there is an exogenous shock to these economies that produces a real exchange rate appreciation. These are common features of emerging/developing economies such as Brazil and South Korea. In order to accomplish the objective of this paper, we will present a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model for small open economies that will take as a starting point, Taylor and O'Connell's (1985) model. After discussing the shortcomings of the original version of their model as an analytical framework for emerging economies, we will present a more general and relevant model that (1) has a broader list of assets (nine assets) than the original model (three assets); (2) assumes the existence of trade between the domestic economy and the rest of the world in order to introduce the crucial variable for our analysis—the real exchange rate; and (3) has high (although imperfect) capital mobility—in the sense of Mundell and Fleming—so that interest rate differential is a major factor determining capital inflows to emerging countries.
机译：本文的目的是表明开放型经济体具有（1）高度的资本流动性，（2）金融市场中的组织度低以及（3）净出口对水平变化的高度敏感性如果这些经济体受到外来冲击而产生实际汇率升值，则经济活动的影响可能会导致资产价格泡沫。这些是新兴经济体（例如巴西和韩国）的共同特征。为了实现本文的目标，我们将提出一个泰克和奥康奈尔（T​​aylor and O'Connell's，1985）模型作为后凯恩斯主义的小开放经济体宏观经济模型作为起点。在讨论了其原始模型作为新兴经济体分析框架的不足之处之后，我们将提出一个更为通用和相关的模型：（1）拥有比原始模型（三种资产）更广泛的资产（九种资产）清单; （2）假设国内经济与世界其他地区之间存在贸易，以便为我们的分析引入关键变量-实际汇率； （3）从蒙代尔和弗莱明的角度来看，资本流动性很高（尽管不完美），因此利率差异是决定新兴国家资本流入的主要因素。

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