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Heroic leadership illusions in football teams: Rationality, decision making and noise-signal ratio in the firing of football managers

机译：足球队中英勇的领导力幻想：解雇足球经理时的合理性，决策制定和噪音信号比率

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摘要

Similar to practices in top management positions worldwide, there has been an increasing tendency in recent decades to fire football managers when the team does not perform to the stakeholders' expectations. Previous research has suggested that improvements after change of manager are a statistical artefact. Based on 12 years of data from the Norwegian Premier League, we conduct a natural experiment showing what would have taken place if the manager had not been fired. In this case, the performance might have improved just as well and even quicker. Building on theories in expertise and decision making, we explore the data and argue that decision makers may be fooled by randomness and learn wrong lessons about team leadership. Our analyses support a post-heroic view of team leadership as an emergent, output variable. Exaggerated focus on the individual manager may ruin long-term performance. Practical implications are discussed.
机译：与全球高级管理职位的做法相似，近几十年来，当球队未达到股东的期望时，解雇足球经理的趋势越来越大。先前的研究表明，更换经理后的改进是一种统计伪像。根据来自挪威超级联赛的12年数据，我们进行了一项自然实验，显示如果经理被解雇，将会发生什么情况。在这种情况下，性能可能会提高得甚至更快。基于专业知识和决策的理论，我们探索数据并认为决策者可能会被随机性所迷惑，并且会从有关团队领导的错误教训中吸取教训。我们的分析支持将团队领导力视为新兴的输出变量的后英雄式观点。对个人经理的过分关注可能会破坏长期绩效。讨论了实际含义。

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