Steve Ames, principal of SBA Consulting, had some pithy comments about our industry's pundits at the ICIS Pan-American Base Oils & Lubricants Conference in December. Every year from 1992 to 2008, industry experts forecast increases in global lubricant demand of 0.4 percent to 2.3 percent, Steve said. "But they were only directionally correct in only eight of the 17 years. Not a very good track record." Forecasters, he said, tend to underestimate increases in efficiency and they ignore the probability of economic downturns. "How do you account for future downturns?"
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