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首页> 外文期刊>Macroeconomic dynamics >DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE GREAT MODERATION IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL WITH MATCHING FRICTIONS
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DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE GREAT MODERATION IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL WITH MATCHING FRICTIONS

机译：具有匹配摩擦的重叠发电模型中的人口变化和极大模拟

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摘要

The fraction of the labor force under 35, or youth share, has been correlated with cyclical GDP volatility over the past several decades. The youth share and business cycle fluctuations were high during the 1970s. Then, as the population aged, output volatility declined. I develop an overlapping generations model featuring search frictions and productivity shocks, in which the age distribution affects cyclical volatility through two channels. First, employment for younger workers fluctuates more, creating a composition effect. Second, inexperienced workers produce less, so firms decide how many jobs to create based on the age distribution. Both this endogenous response by firms and the composition effect increase aggregate volatility when the youth share is high. The model can replicate a large portion of the Great Moderation in GDP volatility, suggesting an important role for demographics. The model also replicates unemployment rates, separation rates, and employment volatility by age group.
机译：在过去的几十年中，低于35岁的劳动力比例（即青年比例）与GDP周期性波动相关。 1970年代，年轻人的份额和商业周期的波动很大。然后，随着人口老龄化，产出波动性下降。我开发了一个具有搜索摩擦和生产率冲击的重叠世代模型，其中年龄分布通过两个渠道影响周期性波动。首先，年轻工人的就业波动更大，从而产生了组成效应。其次，没有经验的工人生产的东西少，所以公司根据年龄分布来决定要创造多少工作。当青年人所占份额较高时，企业的这种内源性反应和构成效应都会增加总体波动性。该模型可以复制很大一部分GDP波动率的适度波动，这表明了人口统计的重要作用。该模型还按年龄组复制了失业率，离职率和就业波动率。

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