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Banking sector development and economic growth in ARF countries: the role of stock markets

机译:ARF国家的银行业发展与经济增长:股票市场的作用

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The paper examines the long-run relationship between banking sector development, stock market development and economic growth in 26 ASEAN regional forum (ARF) countries for the period 1961-2012. Using principal component analysis for the construction of development indices and panel vector auto-regressive model for testing the Granger causalities, the study shows that a long-run relationship between banking sector development, stock market development and economic growth exists in ARF countries. The study also uniquely finds the existence of bidirectional causality between banking sector development and economic growth and a unidirectional causality from stock market development to economic growth. It, however, reveals the existence of unidirectional or bidirectional causal links between banking sector development and stock market development. Hence, future studies on economic growth that exclude the dynamic interrelationship of these variables will be unreliable.
机译:本文研究了1961-2012年间26个东盟地区论坛(ARF)国家中银行业发展,股票市场发展与经济增长之间的长期关系。研究使用主成分分析构建发展指标,并使用面板矢量自回归模型检验格兰杰因果关系,研究表明,ARF国家存在银行业发展,股票市场发展与经济增长之间的长期关系。该研究还独特地发现了银行业发展与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,以及从股票市场发展到经济增长之间存在着双向因果关系。但是,它揭示了银行业发展与股票市场发展之间存在单向或双向因果关系。因此,排除这些变量之间动态相互关系的未来经济增长研究将是不可靠的。

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