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ESTIMATING A BILATERAL J-CURVE BETWEEN THE UK AND THE EURO AREA

机译：估计英国和欧元区之间的双向J曲线

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Following the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union, the pound has depreciated against the euro. This study aims to examine whether the UK could potentially benefit from this depreciation, that is, improve its trade balance with its euro area counterparts. Theory suggests that this could happen only if the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, i.e. if the sum of import and export elasticities is greater than unity. Due to the fact that the Marshall-Lerner condition is static, a more dynamic estimate, the J-curve, which allows for a distinction between the short-run and the long-run response of the trade balance, is employed using bilateral trade data between the UK and 10-euro area countries. Results, employing both bilateral ARDL and Pooled Mean Group methods show that, until a new trade agreement is reached, the UK trade balance vis-a-vis the euro area is not expected to change significantly in the short-run, while it should improve in the long-run. The wide range of bilateral findings underlies the idiosyncrasies between euro area countries and also suggests that there is a rationale for countries to explore different paths such as bilateral agreements with the UK.
机译：在英国决定退出欧盟之后，英镑兑欧元已贬值。这项研究旨在检验英国是否可能从这种贬值中受益，即改善其与欧元区同行的贸易平衡。理论表明，只有在满足Marshall-Lerner条件的情况下，即进出口弹性之和大于1时，这种情况才会发生。由于Marshall-Lerner条件是静态的，因此使用双边贸易数据采用了更具动态性的估计值J曲线，该曲线可区分贸易平衡的短期响应和长期响应。在英国和10欧元区国家之间。结果，同时使用双边ARDL和Pooled Mean Group方法显示，在达成新的贸易协议之前，预计短期内英国与欧元区的贸易平衡不会显着变化，但应该会改善从长远来看。广泛的双边调查结果为欧元区国家之间的特殊性奠定了基础，也表明各国有理由探索不同的道路，例如与英国的双边协议。

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  • 来源
    《The Manchester school》 |2018年第6期|757-769|共13页
  • 作者

    Michail Nektarios A.;

  • 作者单位

    Cyprus Univ Technol, Econ Anal & Res Dept, Cent Bank Cyprus, Dept Commerce, Limassol, Cyprus;

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