A TRENDY APPROACH TO UK INFLATION DYNAMICS

Forbes Kristin; Kirkham Lewis; Theodoridis Konstantinos

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A TRENDY APPROACH TO UK INFLATION DYNAMICS

机译：英国通胀动态的一种时尚态度

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This paper focuses on the time series of UK inflation to isolate a low-frequency and slow-moving component (the trend) from deviations around this trend. This slow-moving trend explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the cyclical movements, and the exchange rate is significantly correlated with movements in the persistent trend. The significance of variables emphasized in standard models (i.e. slack and inflation expectations) varies, and the magnitude of their effects is smaller than for commodity prices and exchange rates. These results highlight the sensitivity of UK inflation to external events and provide guidance on how monetary policy should respond.

机译：本文重点介绍了英国通胀的时间系列，将低频和缓慢移动的部件（趋势）从此趋势周围抵消。这种缓慢移动的趋势解释了英国通胀动态的大量份额。国际价格与周期性的运动有明显相关，汇率与持续趋势的动作显着相关。标准模型中强调的变量（即松弛和通胀期望）的意义变化，其效果的大小小于商品价格和汇率。这些结果突出了英国通货膨胀对外部事件的敏感性，并提供有关货币政策如何应对的指导。

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《The Manchester school》 |2021年第suppla期|23-75|共53页
作者
Forbes Kristin; Kirkham Lewis; Theodoridis Konstantinos;
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MIT Sloan Sch Management Cambridge MA 02142 USA|Bank England London England|NBER Cambridge MA 02138 USA;

Bank England London England;

Cardiff Univ Cardiff S Glam Wales;

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A TRENDY APPROACH TO UK INFLATION DYNAMICS

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