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WHY DO COUNTRIES ADOPT FISCAL RULES?

机译：为什么要制定财政规则？

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摘要

This paper examines which economic, institutional and political characteristics of countries affect the likelihood that a numeral rule will be adopted as part of a fiscal strategy to limit the level of public debt. We estimate a panel binary response model over the period 1970-2012 for 110 countries, of which 58 opted to adopt such a rule. Our results suggest that the probability such a rule will be adopted is greater if a country has a high level of public debt, a relatively inflexible exchange rate regime, has already adopted inflation targeting, has deep credit markets and if other countries already have adopted a debt rule. There are some differences in decision factors between high-income and lower income countries, with the level of economic development and the openness of the economy playing opposite roles in each country group, and the impact of monetary unions on debt rule adoption being much stronger in the former group. The results are robust to testing for reverse causality, including using different econometric techniques.
机译：本文研究了国家的哪些经济，制度和政治特征会影响采用数字规则作为限制公共债务水平的财政战略一部分的可能性。我们估算了1970-2012年期间110个国家/地区的面板二元响应模型，其中58个国家选择采用该规则。我们的结果表明，如果一个国家的公共债务水平高，汇率制度相对僵化，已经采用了通胀目标制，拥有深厚的信贷市场以及其他国家已经采用了这种规则，那么采用该规则的可能性就更大。债务规则。高收入国家和低收入国家之间的决策因素有所不同，经济发展水平和经济开放程度在每个国家组中都扮演相反的角色，而货币联盟对采用债务规则的影响更为强烈。前一组。该结果对于测试反向因果关系（包括使用不同的计量经济学技术）非常可靠。

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  • 来源
    《The Manchester school》 |2017年第1期|65-87|共23页
  • 作者

    Altunbas Yener; Thornton John;

  • 作者单位

    Bangor Univ, Sch Business, Bangor, Gwynedd, Wales;

    Bangor Univ, Sch Business, Bangor, Gwynedd, Wales;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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