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首页> 外文期刊>The Manchester school >IS THE OUTPUT-CAPITAL RATIO CONSTANT IN THE VERY LONG RUN?
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IS THE OUTPUT-CAPITAL RATIO CONSTANT IN THE VERY LONG RUN?

机译：长期运行时，输出资本比率是否恒定？

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摘要

A key prediction of standard models of economic growth is that the output-capital ratio is constant along the economy's balanced growth path. Using data for 16 OECD countries over 135 years we examine whether the output-capital ratio reverts to a constant in the long run using univariate and panel stationarity tests with structural breaks. Univariate stationarity tests with one break provide more evidence of trend reversion than mean reversion. However, in stationarity tests with two breaks and with up to five breaks, the results are largely independent of the inclusion of a trend. When we allow for up to five breaks in the intercept we find that for 12 of the 16 countries, the output-capital ratio is mean reverting and when we allow for up to five breaks in the intercept for 11 of the 16 countries, the output-capital ratio is trend reverting. We also find that for the panel as a whole the output-capital ratio is mean reverting and trend reverting when we allow for up to five breaks.
机译：标准的经济增长模型的关键预测是，在经济的平衡增长路径上，产出资本比是恒定的。使用135年中OECD 16个国家的数据，我们使用结构变量的单变量和面板平稳性检验，检验了从长期来看产出资本比是否恢复为常数。一次休息的单变量平稳性检验提供了比均值回复更多的趋势回复证据。但是，在两次中断和最多五个中断的平稳性测试中，结果在很大程度上与趋势的包含无关。当我们在拦截中最多允许有五个中断时，我们发现对于16个国家中的12个国家，产出-资本比率是均值回复；而当我们在16个国家中的11个允许最多允许中断中有五个中断时，则产出为-资本比率是趋势恢复。我们还发现，就整个面板而言，当我们允许最多五个中断时，产出-资本比率是均值回复和趋势回复。

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