A NEW MEASURE OF US POTENTIAL OUTPUT, INFLATION FORECASTS, AND MONETARY POLICY RULES

CHARLES HARVIE; HYEON-SEUNG HUH

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A NEW MEASURE OF US POTENTIAL OUTPUT, INFLATION FORECASTS, AND MONETARY POLICY RULES

机译：美国潜在产出，通货膨胀预测和货币政策规则的新衡量

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This paper proposes a new measure of potential output for the USA. The key idea is that potential output is constructed as the level of output which would correspond to a forecast of no inflation change over the policy horizon. The resultant output gap has a clear interpretation as a measure to gauge future inflationary pressures. It also exhibits better predictability for future inflation changes in comparison with previous output gap measures. Simulation results further demonstrate its usefulness as a feedback variable in the Taylor monetary policy rule for interest rates.

机译：本文提出了一种衡量美国潜在产出的新方法。关键思想是将潜在产出构造为产出水平，该水平对应于在政策范围内没有通胀变化的预测。由此产生的产出缺口可以清楚地解释为衡量未来通胀压力的一种措施。与以前的产出缺口测算相比，它对未来的通胀变化也具有更好的可预测性。仿真结果进一步证明了其作为利率泰勒货币政策规则中的反馈变量的有效性。

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《The Manchester school》 |2009年第5期|611-631|共21页
作者
CHARLES HARVIE; HYEON-SEUNG HUH;
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作者单位

School of Economics, University of Wollongong;

Department of Economics, Yonsei University;

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A NEW MEASURE OF US POTENTIAL OUTPUT, INFLATION FORECASTS, AND MONETARY POLICY RULES

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