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The Impact of Airline Flight Schedules on Flight Delays

机译：航空公司航班时刻表对航班延误的影响

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A irline flight delays have come under increased scrutiny lately in the popular press, with the Federal Aviation Administration data revealing that airline on-time performance was at its worst level in 13 years in 2007. Flight delays have been attributed to several causes such as weather conditions, airport congestion, airspace congestion, use of smaller aircraft by airlines, etc. In this paper, we examine the impact of the scheduled block time allocated for a flight, a factor controlled by airlines, on on-time arrival performance. We analyze empirical flight data published by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics to estimate the scheduled on-time arrival probability of each commercial domestic flight flown in the United States in 2007 by a major carrier. The structural estimation approach from econometrics is then used to impute the overage to underage cost ratio of the newsvendor model for each flight. Our results show that airlines systematically "underemphasize" flight delays, i.e., the flight delay costs implied by the newsvendor model are less than the implied costs of early arrivals for a large fraction of flights. Our results indicate that revenue drivers (e.g., average fare) and competitive measures (e.g., market share) have a significant impact on the scheduled on-time arrival probability. We also show that the scheduled on-time arrival probability is not positively affected by the total number of passengers on the aircraft rotation who could be affected by a flight delay, or the number of incoming and outgoing connecting passengers on a flight. Operational characteristics such as the hub and spoke network structure also have a significant impact on the scheduled on-time arrival probability. Finally, full-service airlines put a higher weight on the cost of late arrivals than do low-cost carriers, and flying on the lowest fare flight on a route results in a drop in the scheduled on-time arrival probability.
机译：最近，在大众媒体上，对航班延误的关注受到了越来越多的关注，美国联邦航空管理局（Federal Aviation Administration）的数据显示，2007年航空公司的航班准点率达到了13年来的最差水平。航班延误归因于天气等多种原因情况，机场拥挤，空域拥挤，航空公司使用小型飞机等。在本文中，我们研究了为航班分配的预定起飞时间（由航空公司控制的因素）对准时到达性能的影响。我们分析了美国运输统计局发布的经验性飞行数据，以估算主要承运人在2007年在美国飞行的每架商业性国内航班的预定准时到达概率。然后，使用计量经济学的结构估计方法来估算每次航班的新闻供应商模型的超额成本与未成年人成本之比。我们的结果表明，航空公司会系统地“过分强调”航班延误，即新闻供应商模型所隐含的航班延误成本要小于大部分航班早到的隐含成本。我们的结果表明，收入驱动因素（例如，平均票价）和竞争性指标（例如，市场份额）对计划的准时到达概率有重大影响。我们还表明，计划的准时到达概率不会受到可能受到航班延误影响的飞机旋转乘客总数的影响，也不会受到航班上进出接驳旅客数量的积极影响。集线器和分支网络结构等操作特性也对计划的准时到达概率产生重大影响。最后，提供全方位服务的航空公司比廉价航空公司更重视延迟到达的费用，并且在航线上以最低票价飞行会导致计划的准点到达概率下降。

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