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首页> 外文期刊>Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research >Turkish Housing Market Dynamics: An Estimated DSGE Model
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Turkish Housing Market Dynamics: An Estimated DSGE Model

机译：土耳其住房市场动态：估计的DSGE模型

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摘要

In this article, we investigate the underlying driving dynamics behind house price variations in Turkey by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the housing market and collateral constraints are included. The model also analyses the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the housing market by making policy simulations under different loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, which are used as a housing market-specific economic policy tool. The model is extended by including the traditional Taylor rule with house prices for representing monetary policy. Our findings show that house prices in Turkey are largely explained by housing preference shocks. Besides, we find that monetary policy shock plays a small role in determining the variables of the housing market in the short-term period. However, the magnitude of the impact of housing market shocks on the rest of the economy depends on the LTV ratios. The higher the LTV ratio, the higher are the effects of the government’s housing policy instrument for stabilising the housing market on real macroeconomic variables such as consumption and output in Turkey. Finally, our findings show that the fluctuations in house prices have not played a substantial role in the monetary policy reaction function of Turkey. JEL Codes: E32, E52, E44, E51, R31.
机译：在本文中，我们通过估计包括住房市场和抵押限制的动态随机通用均衡（DSGE）模型来调查土耳其房价变化背后的潜在驾驶动态。该模型还通过在不同贷款到价值（LTV）比率下进行政策模拟，分析了宏观经济变量与房地产市场之间的相互作用，该贷款算法被用作住房市场特定的经济政策工具。该型号通过包括传统泰勒规则，包括代表货币政策的房价。我们的研究结果表明，土耳其房价主要通过住房偏好冲击来解释。此外，我们发现货币政策冲击在短期期间确定住房市场的变量方面发挥着小的作用。然而，住房市场冲击对其余经济影响的影响依赖于LTV比率。 LTV比率越高，政府住房政策工具稳定房地产市场的效果越高，土耳其的消费和产出等政府的住房政策工具稳定房地产市场。最后，我们的调查结果表明，房价的波动在土耳其的货币政策反应功能中没有发挥重要作用。 JEL码：E32，E52，E44，E51，R31。

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