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首页> 外文期刊>Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research >An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria's Current Account Sustainability
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An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria's Current Account Sustainability

机译：尼日利亚经常账户可持续性的实证分析

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摘要

This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades using time-series analysis on annual data from 1981 to 2013. We focus on two analytical distinctions to the inter-temporal budget constraint (IBC) hypothesis in relation to previous studies. First, we extend the standard bivariate approach to a multivariate framework that accounts for the roles of oil price variations and financial deepening, which have important implications for resource allocation. Second is the use of the Toda-Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD)-based causality test that is also carried out to arbitrage between the results with and without a structural break. It employs both the conventional unit root test (augmented Dickey-Fuller [ADF] and Phillips-Perron [PP]) and the unit root test with a structural break (Perron, 2006; Zivot & Andrews, 1992). It also carries out the conventional residual-based cointegration test (Engle & Granger, 1987) and the residual-based cointegration test with a structural break (Gregory & Hansen, 1995). Findings suggest that there is current account sustainability in Nigeria and structural changes were not very potent during the period under consideration. This implies that the Nigerian economy complied with the IBC hypothesis, suggesting that exports could actually finance imports.
机译：这项研究使用对1981年至2013年年度数据的时间序列分析，重新审视了尼日利亚过去40年的经常账户可持续性。我们着眼于与先前研究相关的跨时间预算约束（IBC）假设的两个分析区别。首先，我们将标准的双变量方法扩展到一个多变量框架，该框架考虑了石油价格变化和金融深化的作用，这对资源分配具有重要意义。其次是使用基于Toda-Yamamoto修改的Wald（MWALD）的因果关系检验，该检验也用于在结构中断和不中断的情况下在结果之间套利。它采用了常规的单位根测试（增强的Dickey-Fuller [ADF]和Phillips-Perron [PP]）和具有结构破坏的单位根测试（Perron，2006； Zivot＆Andrews，1992）。它还执行常规的基于残差的协整测试（Engle和Granger，1987）和具有结构断裂的基于残差的协整测试（Gregory＆Hansen，1995）。调查结果表明，尼日利亚目前的经常账户具有可持续性，在本报告所述期间，结构性变化不是很有效。这意味着尼日利亚经济符合IBC假设，表明出口实际上可以为进口提供资金。

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