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首页> 外文期刊>Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research >Is Money Supply Exogenous? Evidence from India
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Is Money Supply Exogenous? Evidence from India

机译：货币供应是外生的吗？来自印度的证据

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摘要

Against the backdrop of the claim that the rising growth rate of money is one of the major factors behind India's recent bout of elevated and sticky inflation, this article asks: Is money supply exogenous or endogenous, and can it predict future inflation. This question is investigated using the monetarist framework of inflation. In the empirical analysis of data spanning from 1970-71 to 2009-10, the results of both the monetarist and the error-correction models suggest that money supply accounts for inflation in India. There is also the presence of an error-correction mechanism among money, inflation and output. However, a monetarist equation does not tell anything about causality. Thus, the vector autoregression (VAR) method is used to detect the direction of causality between money supply and the inflation rate. Findings from Granger causality tests suggest weak evidence of inflation (Granger) causing money supply. As a robustness check, we estimate VAR models using quarterly data and, further, using core inflation. The results of the causality tests from the quarterly data, the impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition suggest that money supply is weakly endogenous.
机译：在声称货币增长速度是印度最近出现的通胀上升和粘性通胀背后的主要因素之一的背景下，本文提出：货币供应是内生的还是内生的，它可以预测未来的通货膨胀。使用通货膨胀的货币主义框架调查了这个问题。在对1970-71年至2009-10年间数据的实证分析中，货币主义和误差校正模型的结果都表明，货币供应是印度通货膨胀的原因。货币，通货膨胀和产出之间也存在纠错机制。但是，货币主义方程式并不能说明因果关系。因此，向量自回归（VAR）方法用于检测货币供应量与通货膨胀率之间的因果关系方向。格兰杰因果关系测试的结果表明，通货膨胀（格兰杰）导致货币供应量不足的证据。作为稳健性检查，我们使用季度数据以及核心通胀来估算VAR模型。从季度数据，脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解得出的因果检验结果表明，货币供应是弱内生的。

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