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首页> 外文期刊>Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research >Understanding the Behaviour of Capital Flow and its Components: The Indian Experience
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Understanding the Behaviour of Capital Flow and its Components: The Indian Experience

机译：了解资本流动的行为及其组成部分：印度的经验

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摘要

The article analyses the behaviour of net total capital inflow and its components since the introduction of liberalisation in India in 1991. An introspective analysis of capital flow reveals that capital inflow in India is volatile in nature and it is volatile in exactly the wrong direction, in a sense that it is pro-cyclical rather than countercyclical. However, all types of flows should not be treated equally. Being the most volatile and least persistent components, FPI and commercial bank inflow should be monitored very cautiously. The volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) and commercial borrowing has gradually increased, although it has declined recently. External assistance has declined steadily and lost its dominance relative to the other counterparts. There is ample evidence of complementarity among the components of capital flows though we get a glimpse of substitutability between FDI and FPI-the two most voluminous components of capital flows. Contrary to a-cyclical, non-debt creating flows, commercial borrowings and commercial bank flows are found to be pro-cyclical in nature. The net total capital inflow series contain three structural breakpoints, at 1995Q4, 2002Q4 and 2006Q2. Domestic growth performance, policy changes and external shocks are the key factors behind these obtained structural breaks. There was a noticeable change in the behaviour of total capital flow and its components over the four phases identified in the article.
机译：本文分析了自1991年印度实行自由化以来的总资本净流入行为及其构成。对资本流动的内省分析表明，印度的资本流入本质上是易变的，而且在错误的方向上是完全可变的。从某种意义上说，它是顺周期而不是逆周期的。但是，不应将所有类型的流量均等地对待。作为最不稳定和最不持久的组成部分，应非常谨慎地监控FPI和商业银行的流入。外国直接投资（FDI）和商业借贷的波动性逐渐增加，尽管最近有所下降。外部援助稳步下降，相对于其他援助失去了主导地位。尽管我们瞥见了FDI和FPI之间的可替代性，FDI和FPI是资本流动的两个最大部分，但有充分的证据证明资本流动的各个组成部分之间具有互补性。与非周期性非债务创造流动相反，商业借款和商业银行流动被发现具有顺周期性质。净总资本流入系列包括三个结构性的临界点，分别是1995年第四季度，2002年第四季度和2006年第二季度。国内增长表现，政策变化和外部冲击是这些结构性断裂背后的关键因素。在本文确定的四个阶段中，总资本流动及其组成部分的行为发生了显着变化。

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