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首页> 外文期刊>Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research >Madhya Pradesh: Does Agriculture Determine the State's Growth Trajectory?
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Madhya Pradesh: Does Agriculture Determine the State's Growth Trajectory?

机译：中央邦：农业会决定国家的增长轨迹吗？

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摘要

This article empirically analyses whether agricultural growth performance determines the growth trajectory of the economy of an Indian state, namely Madhya Pradesh. Long-term growth trends of nearly three decades (1981-2011) in Madhya Pradesh show that fluctuations in agricultural growth and Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) clearly coincide and have a considerable impact on the overall growth of the state's economy. In examining this, the agricultural terms of trade are first introduced to capture the relative price responsiveness of agricultural supply in the state. Structural breaks, cointegration and an error correction mechanism are used to explore the long-term relationship between terms of trade, agricultural growth and GSDP growth. Findings show that agricultural fluctuations explain nearly half of fluctuations in the growth of the state economy while agricultural supply remains responsive to price and economic incentives. The analysis suggests that agricultural growth performance remains central to achieving any higher growth trajectory for the state.
机译：本文从经验上分析了农业增长绩效是否决定了印度中央邦（Madhya Pradesh）的经济增长轨迹。中央邦近三十年（1981-2011年）的长期增长趋势表明，农业增长和国内生产总值（GSDP）的波动显然是重合的，并且对该州经济的总体增长产生了相当大的影响。在对此进行检验时，首先引入了农业贸易条件，以捕捉该州农业供应的相对价格响应能力。使用结构性中断，协整和错误校正机制来探讨贸易条件，农业增长和GSDP增长之间的长期关系。研究结果表明，农业波动解释了国有经济增长中近一半的波动，而农业供给仍然对价格和经济激励措施有反应。分析表明，农业增长绩效对于实现该州更高的增长轨迹仍然至关重要。

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