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首页> 外文期刊>Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research >Macroeconomic Modelling of Emerging Scenarios for India's Twelfth Five-Year Plan
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Macroeconomic Modelling of Emerging Scenarios for India's Twelfth Five-Year Plan

机译：印度“十二五”规划新方案的宏观经济建模

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India's 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) emphasises 'faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth'. The GDP growth target for the Plan was initially fixed at 9 per cent and later revised to 8 per cent against the backdrop of significant contraction of domestic output during the first two years of the Plan period. The Plan document has seta target of achieving a 2 percentage point reduction in poverty per annum. However, the document has cautioned that achieving the revised growth target also needs special efforts and structural reforms in the economic, social and political systems. For the first time, the Planning Commission has proposed to work on 'scenario planning' for the 12th Plan. It has proposed three scenarios: 'The Flotilla Advances', 'Muddling Along' and 'Falling Apart'. The main thrust of scenario analysis is to highlight the need for specific interventions in policy to achieve the goals of the Plan. Using the macroeconometric model developed by the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in India, the study finds that GDP growth rate will decline significantly under the Falling Apart scenario compared with the other two scenarios. As a result, poverty reduction is expected to be marginal under this scenario. The Falling Apart scenario will also lead to an unsustainable fiscal and current account deficit situation over the medium term. The other important finding of the study is that investment in social infrastructure (education and health) and physical infrastructure would not only achieve higher economic growth but also sustain it in the long term and both infrastructures have a similar impact on growth.
机译：印度的第十二个五年计划（2012-13至2016-17）强调“更快，可持续和更具包容性的增长”。该计划的国内生产总值增长目标最初定为9％，后来在计划前两年国内生产大幅萎缩的背景下修订为8％。该计划文件设定了一个目标，即每年减少2个百分点的贫困。但是，该文件警告说，要实现修订后的增长目标，还需要在经济，社会和政治体系中作出特殊的努力和进行结构性改革。计划委员会第一次提议为第十二个计划进行“情景计划”。它提出了三种方案：“舰队前进”，“沿途混战”和“陷入困境”。情景分析的主要目的是强调需要采取具体的政策干预措施以实现计划的目标。使用印度国家应用经济研究理事会（NCAER）开发的宏观计量经济学模型，该研究发现，与其他两种情况相比，在“分崩离析”方案下，GDP增长率将显着下降。结果，在这种情况下，预计减贫将是微不足道的。在中期出现分崩离析的情况也将导致不可持续的财政和经常账户赤字状况。该研究的另一个重要发现是，对社会基础设施（教育和卫生）和有形基础设施的投资不仅可以实现更高的经济增长，而且可以长期维持经济增长，并且两种基础设施对增长的影响都相似。

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