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Estimates of vital rates for a declining loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) subpopulation: implications for management

机译：（Caretta caretta）亚群下降的生命率估算：对管理的影响

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摘要

Because subpopulations can differ geographically, genetically and/or phenotypically, using data from one subpopulation to derive vital rates for another, while often unavoidable, is not optimal. We used a two-state open robust design model to analyze a 14-year data-set (1998-2011) from the St. Joseph Peninsula, Florida (USA; 29.748°, -85.400°) which is the densest loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting beach in the Northern Gulf of Mexico subpopulation. For these analyses, 433 individuals were marked of which only 7.2 % were observed re-nesting in the study area in subsequent years during the study period. Survival was estimated at 0.86 and is among the highest estimates for all subpopulations in the Northwest Atlantic population. The robust model estimated a nesting assemblage size that ranged from 32 to 230 individuals each year with an annual average of 110. The model estimates indicated an overall population decline of 17 %. The results presented here for this nesting group represent the first estimates for this subpopulation. These data provide managers with information specific to this subpopulation that can be used to develop recovery plans and conduct subpopulation-specific modeling exercises explicit to the challenges faced by turtles nesting in this region.
机译：由于亚种群在地理，遗传和/或表型上可能会有所不同，因此使用一个亚种群的数据来得出另一亚种群的生命率（尽管通常是不可避免的）并不是最佳选择。我们使用了两种状态的开放鲁棒性设计模型来分析佛罗里达州圣约瑟夫半岛（美国； 29.748°，-85.400°）的14年数据集（1998-2011年），该数据集是最密集的头（Caretta caretta） ）在墨西哥北部海湾亚群中筑巢的海滩。对于这些分析，标记了433个人，其中在研究期间的随后几年中，仅7.2％的人被重新嵌套在研究区域中。存活率估计为0.86，是西北大西洋人口所有亚群中最高的估计值之一。健壮的模型估计每年的嵌套组合规模为32到230个人，平均每年110个。模型估算表明总体人口减少了17％。此处为该嵌套组提供的结果表示对该子种群的初步估计。这些数据为管理人员提供了有关此亚种群的信息，这些信息可用于制定恢复计划并进行针对亚种群的建模练习，以明确应对该地区海龟筑巢所面临的挑战。

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  • 来源
    《Marine biology》 |2014年第11期|2659-2668|共10页
  • 作者

    Margaret M. Lamont; I. Fujisaki; Raymond R. Carthy;

  • 作者单位

    Southeast Ecological Science Center, US Geological Survey (USGS), Gainesville, FL, USA;

    Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Ft. Lauderdale Research and Education Center, Davie, FL, USA;

    Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, US Geological Survey, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA;

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