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Assessing plausible rates of population growth in humpback whales from life-history data

机译：根据生活史数据评估座头鲸的合理增长率

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摘要

The rate of growth of any population is a quantity of interest in conservation and management and is constrained by biological factors. In this study, recent data on life-history parameters influencing rates of population growth in humpback whales, including survival, age at first parturition and calving rate are reviewed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute a distribution of rates of increase (ROIs) taking into account uncertainty in biological parameter estimates. Two approaches for computing juvenile survival are proposed, which taken into account along with other life-history data, resulted in the following estimates of the rate of population growth: Approach A: mean of 7.3%/year (95% CI = 3.5-10.5%/year) and Approach B: mean of 8.6%/year (95% CI = 5.0-11.4%/ year). It is proposed that the upper 99% quantile of the resulting distribution of the ROI for Approach B (11.8%/ year) be established as the maximum plausible ROI for humpback whales and be used in population assessment of the species. Possible sources of positive and negative biases in the present estimates are presented and include measurement error in estimation of life-history parameters, changes in the environment within the period thesernquantities are measured, density dependence or other natural factors. However, it is difficult to evaluate potential biases without additional data. The methods presented in this study can be applied to other species for which life-history parameters are available and are useful in assessing plausibility in the estimation of population growth rates from time series of abundance estimates.
机译：任何人口的增长速度都是保护和管理的关注点，并受到生物学因素的限制。在这项研究中，回顾了有关生活史参数影响座头鲸种群增长速度的最新数据，包括存活率，首次分娩年龄和产犊率。考虑生物参数估计中的不确定性，蒙特卡罗模拟用于计算增长率（ROI）的分布。提出了两种计算青少年生存率的方法，并结合其他生活史数据得出以下人口增长率的估算值：方法A：平均值为7.3％/年（95％CI = 3.5-10.5） ％/年）和方法B：平均值为8.6％/年（95％CI = 5.0-11.4％/年）。建议将方法B的ROI分布的最高99％分位数（11.8％/年）确定为座头鲸的最大可行ROI，并用于该物种的种群评估。提出了当前估计中正偏差和负偏差的可能来源，包括在估计生活史参数时的测量误差，在测量其数量期间的环境变化，密度依赖性或其他自然因素。但是，如果没有其他数据，很难评估潜在的偏差。这项研究中介绍的方法可以应用于其他具有生命历史参数的物种，并可以用于根据丰度估计的时间序列评估人口增长率的合理性。

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  • 来源
    《Marine biology》 |2010年第6期|1225-1236|共12页
  • 作者

    Alexandre N. Zerbini; Phillip J. Clapham; Paul R. Wade;

  • 作者单位

    National Marine Mammal Laboratory,Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries,7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115-6349,USA Instituto Aqualie, Projeto Monitoramento de Baleias por Satelite,Rua Edgard Werneck 428/32, Rio de Janeiro,RJ 22763-010, Brazil;

    National Marine Mammal Laboratory,Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries,7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115-6349,USA;

    National Marine Mammal Laboratory,Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries,7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115-6349,USA;

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